Ethereum Breakout: A Wild Ride to $5,100 – Can It Hold? The Truth About This Surge!

by

Ethereum is dancing above $4,540 as of September 12, adding nearly 3% in the last 24 hours. Weekly gains stand at a modest 4.7%, but with a slight dip of -1.9% month-on-month, it’s still the breakout from September 10 that’s grabbing everyone’s attention.

The falling wedge breakout is now in full swing, signaling that there might just be room for further gains. On-chain and derivatives data show two heavyweight groups are backing this move, suggesting the price could well leap toward $5,110-if the stars align, of course.

The Holders Step Back While the Derivatives Traders Rush In

Ethereum’s rally has been marked by a dramatic drop in the Spent Coins Age Band (SCAB). On September 4, coins moved across all age groups totaled a whopping 417,000 ETH. By September 12, that number had plummeted to a mere 148,000 ETH-a massive 64.5% drop, even with a temporary spike to 365,000 ETH on September 11.

This cool-down of spot activity stands out like a sore thumb, given that previous ETH price highs, such as on August 14 and August 27, saw coins being spent above the 500,000 ETH mark.

What does this mean? Well, it looks like the previous summer rallies were accompanied by heavy selling from older coins, but now? Well, now, the holders-yes, even those with ETH they’ve been hoarding since the Stone Age-aren’t exactly rushing to sell. This makes the breakout even more convincing, with fewer coins flooding the market. Lovely, right?

The Spent Coins Age Band (SCAB) metric tracks the movement of coins by their age and reveals whether the old supply is creating pressure or is happily staying put. Spoiler: this time, it’s the latter.

Want to dive deeper into token insights? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter right here.

Meanwhile, derivatives activity is going through the roof. The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio has surged above 1.0, indicating that buyers are absolutely owning the order books, gobbling up sell orders. This ratio started climbing on September 10-just when Ethereum broke out of its falling wedge, mind you-and peaked at 1.17, the highest level in over a year.

This spike typically signals some aggressive buying pressure. For context, we last saw a similar rise on August 3, when the ratio jumped and Ethereum surged from $3,490 to $4,750, a solid 36% leap. Sure, these surges often cool down later, but hey, for now, the demand from derivatives traders is as hot as ever.

So, what’s the combination? Spot holders are holding strong and not selling, while derivatives traders are piling in with bullish bets. Put these two together, and you’ve got a solid foundation for Ethereum’s breakout.

The Falling Wedge Breakout: Is $5,100 In Ethereum’s Future?

And now, let’s get to the technical stuff that backs this bullish frenzy. On September 10, ETH confirmed its breakout from a falling wedge-this is the pattern where prices form lower highs and lower lows inside narrowing lines, only to burst upward.

To measure the target for this move, we take the vertical distance between the highest and lowest points of the wedge and project that from the breakout level. This gives us a target above $5,110, or nearly a 12% gain if market conditions allow it to continue.

Before that happens, though, Ethereum will need to clear several resistance levels. The first one is at $4,630, followed by $4,790 and then the previous ETH peak of nearly $4,950.

On the downside, $4,380 is the immediate support. However, if ETH falls below $4,279, we might as well call the breakout a false alarm, and ETH will likely return to a neutral outlook. Oh, and if the price drops under $4,060? Well, that would signal a bearish shift, though it seems highly unlikely in the near term.

Read More

2025-09-12 19:08