Bitcoin’s Wild Ride: Bulls, Bears, and a Dash of Madness! 🚀🐻

by

Observations from the Cryptovski Oblast:

  • Bitcoin, that fickle mistress, has flirted with $119,500 before coyly glancing at her “overbought” reflection in the mirror.

  • Traders, like peasants awaiting the next harvest, murmur about “support retests” while counting their nearly 10% weekly gains.

  • ETF inflows swell like a bureaucrat’s waistline – $1.6 billion in three days, with IBIT elbowing its way into the ETF aristocracy.

Bitcoin (BTC) appears poised for one of its characteristic mood swings, as technical indicators develop the financial equivalent of a fever.

On Thursday, traders exchanged knowing glances, suggesting BTC/USD might retreat after its brief dalliance with six-week highs above $119,000 – much like a nobleman retreating from an overly amorous peasant girl.

The RSI Cometh

Bitcoin has gained nearly 10% this week, mimicking gold‘s upward trajectory – though with considerably more drama and far fewer people pretending to understand why.

Despite reaching $119,500 on Bitstamp (according to CryptoMoon Markets Pro and TradingView), the market exhibits signs of overheating – not unlike a samovar left unattended at a Moscow tea party.

“Looking at this further, pullback/retest makes sense as shown by LTFs,” wrote trader Roman on X, demonstrating the typical trader’s ability to state the obvious while making it sound profound.

“Everything is overbought but no signs of initial weakness. Simple breakout & retest.”

The RSI, currently flirting with 90/100, hasn’t been this overbought since July when BTC/USD first breached $123,000 – an event that likely caused several hedge fund managers to spill their champagne.

While RSI often precedes market turns, daily and weekly charts tell a different story – much like how a peasant’s description of winter differs from a nobleman’s.

“Volume, rsi, & macd look good for continuation to 124k over next few days,” Roman concluded, proving that optimism persists even when technical indicators suggest impending doom.

ETF Follies

Caleb Franzen of Cubic Analytics spotted a bullish divergence between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 – an observation roughly as surprising as a Moscow winter.

His analysis focused on BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), because nothing says “financial revolution” like institutional investment products.

Bullish RSI divergence for Bitcoin relative to the S&P 500 (IBIT/SPY).

– Caleb Franzen (@CalebFranzen) October 1, 2025

Farside Investors reports $1.6 billion in net inflows this week across US ETFs, with IBIT contributing $600 million – enough to make even a St. Petersburg banker raise an eyebrow.

Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas noted IBIT’s entry into the top 20 ETFs by assets, prompting existential questions about timelines and growth trajectories.

“Someone asked me how long till Top 10. It is $50b away. If the last 12mo are repeated it may not take long. It took in $40b last 12mo and went up 85%,” he mused on X, before adding with characteristic analyst caution:

“That said, those other ETFs growing too so i don’t know. If forced i’d set the over/under for Xmas 2026.”

Read More

2025-10-02 12:29