Bitcoin’s latest rollercoaster ride sent traders into a frenzy. The price plummeted from a dazzling $120,800 to a mere $102,000 before bouncing back nearly 9%, flirting with a respectable $111,000. Meanwhile, altcoins like Ethereum and XRP were left in the dust, crumbling by more than 13%. Bitcoin, however, only saw a 7% dip at the time of writing, which suggests it’s not the fragile little thing it’s sometimes made out to be – a little more stable amidst the chaos.
But the real question everyone’s whispering is: Will Bitcoin stay above the sacred $100,000 line, or will the price tumble even further into the abyss? Fortunately, three charts might just have the answers. Spoiler: they might surprise you.
Holders Rise and Veterans Stay Cool as a Cucumber
First off, let’s check the on-chain behavior of holders. Despite the price crash, Bitcoin holders are still holding their ground. The total number of Bitcoin holders climbed from 56.92 million to 56.98 million just yesterday. Guess what? That’s not panic selling – that’s dip-buying at its finest. Maybe they’ve learned the secret of buying low, selling high? Who knows, but at least they’re not crying over spilled coins.
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Enter the Spent Coins Age Bands (SCAB) – yes, it sounds as glamorous as it is informative. SCAB measures the age of coins being spent. When the crash began, the SCAB was at 17,100 BTC, but then it shot up to 23,086 BTC, indicating that newer holders were jumping into the market with their wallets wide open. The older, seasoned holders? They were sitting pretty, watching the storm with their hands folded. It’s as if they’ve been through this drama before.
The SCAB’s color-coded bands are the telltale signs here: The red band (180-365 days) eased just a bit, and the blue band (365 days-2 years) dropped sharply. The veterans were holding, while the newbies were doing the heavy lifting – panic selling like their life depended on it. Classic.
When old hands sit tight and the total number of holders increases, it’s a sign that the market’s weak hands are being replaced by the strong ones. And that, my friend, could be the calm before the storm – a necessary reset before the next price surge. Hold on to your hats.
Bitcoin’s Price Setup Flips From Bearish to Bullish – A Glimmer of Hope
Now let’s talk about Bitcoin’s price action – and don’t worry, it’s more exciting than watching paint dry. The recent crash wasn’t just some emotional overreaction – no, it followed a technical pattern that often precedes a big shift in direction.
The culprit? A bearish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI). This nifty little indicator measures the buying and selling momentum, and when the price moves in one direction while the RSI moves in the opposite, it’s a clear sign that something’s about to change. And guess what? That’s exactly what happened. Between mid-July and early October, Bitcoin made new highs, but the RSI was like, “Nah, I’m not confirming this.” The result? A sharp 19.1% correction, almost identical to a similar event earlier this year.
But here’s the twist – just when it looked like the bear was ready to feast, a bullish divergence appeared between September 25 and October 11. The price made a lower low, while the RSI made a higher low – a classic sign that the selling pressure is losing its power. Who’s ready for a rebound? I know I am.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is sitting at a cozy $111,600, nudging the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $111,400. A daily close above this level could open the doors to $113,600, $116,800, and maybe even $120,800. Exciting, right?
The point of no return? $109,100. If Bitcoin falls below that, things could get a little messy, but it would have to dive all the way to $101,900 to breach that sacred $100,000 barrier. So, unless something catastrophic happens, we’re not likely to see that happen anytime soon. Keep your fingers crossed, folks!
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2025-10-11 16:02