Is the Bitcoin Treasury ‘Bear Market’ Crisis Over? Analyst Has the Inside Scoop!

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Key Takeaways

Why are funds closing MSTR’s short positions?

Because they think the whole thesis has played out and the mNAV is almost as stable as a sleep-deprived professor at 2AM! 😂

How can the update impact BTC’s value?

Well, if the sellers are exhausted (who wouldn’t be after all that drama?), bulls might finally get a shot, potentially turning the tides for MSTR and, by extension, boosting BTC inflows. 🚀

The legendary Wall Street short seller, James Chanos, has decided to pull the rug on his short position against MSTR stock (Strategy), which has some people whispering about a recovery in treasury inflows. 🎩

Chanos, who shorted MSTR and went long on Bitcoin [BTC] when the company’s mNAV (market-to-net-asset-value) started contracting last year, commented with his usual flair,

“It is prudent to cover this trade with mNAV below 1.25x, having dropped from ~2.0x as recently as July 2025. While we still believe there is more room for mNAV compression, the thesis has largely played out.”

For those of you wondering what in the crypto world mNAV means – it’s how a company’s market value stacks up against its crypto holdings. In other words, it tells you if people are falling head over heels for leveraged BTC exposure via MSTR. Spoiler: they were, but not anymore. 😏

The ratio’s dropped like a hot potato from 3.4x to nearly 1x. That’s the equivalent of Chanos saying, “Yeah, I’m out.” And when Chanos bails on a short position, the crypto community starts to wonder: Is this the beginning of a bull run or just another wild ride? 🤔

Will it improve BTC treasury inflows?

Well, if you’re wondering whether this is the turning point for BTC treasury inflows, don’t hold your breath just yet. We’ve been here before. Another prominent short-seller, Kerrisdale Capital, also bet against MSTR last year – and BitMine, Ethereum’s treasury champion. Both blamed inflated mNAVs and Bitcoin ETFs stealing all the glory for their bearish stance. 🍿

Since MSTR hit a high of $457 back in July, it’s been tumbling like a roller coaster, dropping more than 51% to $219.68. It’s been a sweet ride for bears like Chanos and Kerrisdale, but now we’re asking: Is the bottom near, or are we just warming up for another round of volatility? 🤷‍♂️

As shorts get covered, analysts are hopeful for a bit of relief for MSTR. And hey, maybe BTC treasury inflows will get their groove back. 💃

According to Pierre Rochard, the CEO of the Bitcoin Bond Company,

“The Bitcoin treasury company bear market is gradually coming to an end. Expect continued volatility, but this is the kind of signal you want to see for a reversal.”

Treasury Inflows at a Crossroads

In late 2024 and mid-2025, when Bitcoin was on a roll, treasury inflows were surging like a caffeine high on Monday morning. Weekly inflows jumped from $2 billion to $6 billion in November 2024, according to DeFiLlama. 📈

But then, after July 2025, the story took a dramatic turn. Inflows weakened like a slow leak, falling from $4B to just $45 million. That’s a 98% decline – and not the kind of drop you want to brag about at crypto parties. 😬

Despite this gloomy picture, MicroStrategy decided to show some optimism by boosting its Euro-based STRE note offering from €350 million to €620 million for fresh BTC purchases. Maybe there’s a hidden gem under all this rubble. 💎

But, whether the bulls will return to push up MSTR and revive those BTC treasury inflows is still anyone’s guess. Get your popcorn ready – the next chapter is just getting started. 🍿🚀

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2025-11-10 01:48