According to on-chain analyst James Check (yes, because he’s a total Bitcoin guru), Bitcoin is in danger of facing a political crisis-no, really-just as much as it’s in danger of a technical one if quantum computers show up and get all big and fancy.
His big warning? It won’t be the math that trips us up. Oh no, it’ll be getting the Bitcoin community to actually agree on how to protect the coins that have been sitting idle for, well, ages. Because clearly, everyone’s so good at agreeing on stuff. 🙄
Dormant Supply At Risk
Here’s a fun fact: around 32.4% of all Bitcoin hasn’t budged in the past five years. Yes, five years. And nearly 17% of it has been chilling for more than a decade. So, basically, Bitcoin’s version of the ‘that’s my parking spot’ club. 🅿️
What’s even more fun? Some of these old coins have public keys exposed, which could be the main target if quantum attacks ever become a thing. I’m not saying it’s like the keys to the kingdom, but it’s close. 👑
Analysts estimate that a cool 6-7 million BTC are sitting in these vulnerable spots, and, spoiler alert: security experts are already eyeing them like a hawk.
Bitcoin Uses Elliptic Curve Signatures
Bitcoin’s security relies on ECDSA and Schnorr signatures. According to some smarty-pants researchers, those could be so broken by Shor’s algorithm if a big enough quantum computer comes into play. Like, really broken. 🚨
But don’t fret, the US National Institute of Standards and Technology has already come up with some fancy quantum-resistant signature schemes. Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 360 also hints at post-quantum options. So, no need to panic… yet. 🤞
You allow the old coins to come back to market.
Since there is no chance we come to consensus to freeze them, focus on the tech side of quantum safe wallets, and let the market sort out the rest.
– _Checkmate (@_Checkmatey_) November 23, 2025
Technical Timelines And Estimates
Right now, quantum devices have about 1,000 physical qubits. Some scientists think a machine with around 126,000 qubits could break elliptic curve signatures. I mean, that sounds totally manageable, right? 😬
Others say that the magic number is around 2,300 logical qubits. Don’t ask me to explain the difference between physical and logical qubits. Just trust that error correction is needed, and I’m pretty sure that’s a lot of work. 🧠
Experts say the quantum attack window will probably open in the late 2020s or early 2030s. But some are like, “Hold up, it’s decades away!” because quantum computers are, surprise surprise, still super unreliable.
Institutional Steps And Wary Firms
Some brave actors have already started taking precautions. El Salvador split its 6,284 BTC reserves across 14 addresses to reduce risk. Because that’s how they roll. 🏝️
Big firms have started to file their quantum concerns, and stablecoin operators are, predictably, raising alarms about wallets that haven’t been touched in ages. Because why not stress about every little thing, right?
I think a lot of confusion on quantum and BTC is that everyone frames it as a tech problem, but what makes the problem specifically unique to BTC is that the tech problem is secondary.
Quantum-resistant Bitcoin will be feasible, but it doesn’t solve what you do with the old coins.
– ceteris (@ceterispar1bus) November 23, 2025
Politics Could Decide The Outcome
Now, here’s the kicker: James Check thinks the real danger is governance. Because let’s face it, trying to get Bitcoin’s decentralized community to agree on anything is like herding cats. 🐱
He’s not wrong. The chance of everyone agreeing to freeze or forcibly migrate coins that haven’t been touched for years? Slim to none. And even if the tech fixes exist, we might just be stuck with a bunch of exposed coins. Because, you know, human nature.
So, experts are split on the whole situation: some think we need to migrate early, while others are like, “Meh, it’s fine, we can wait until quantum standards are ready.” In the end, the threat is real, the dates are fuzzy, and the biggest obstacle isn’t tech-it’s getting people to agree on what to do. Classic, right? 🙄
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2025-11-25 21:28