Bitcoin’s $94K Fail: Why Over 25% of BTC is Now in the Red 🥴

by

So, Bitcoin tried to break through the almighty $94,000 mark on December 3rd. Spoiler: It failed miserably. 🙄 The market? Oh, it’s holding together with duct tape and bad decisions. According to on-chain data, more than a quarter of all BTC supply is now taking a nice, relaxing dive into the “unrealized loss” zone.

This failure to reach new heights aligns perfectly with a “critical threshold” (that’s a fancy way of saying things are not looking good) identified by Glassnode’s Supply Quantiles Cost Basis Model. This tool tracks the cost basis of large segments of circulating supply-basically, it measures how much risk is hanging over our heads.

Bitcoin on-chain quantiles: The Titanic, but Make it Crypto

Per Glassnode (yes, they’re the experts), Bitcoin dropped below its 0.75 cost-basis quantile back in mid-November. What does this mean? Well, over 25% of Bitcoin’s supply-mostly held by folks who bought in recently-is now officially underwater. They’ve lost more than they care to admit, and probably more than their therapist is prepared to handle.

Historically, this is the part of the movie where the market is deciding between two options: either it crashes further, or we enter a lovely phase of seller exhaustion (aka: everyone’s too tired to panic sell anymore). It’s basically a waiting game with a lot of emotional baggage.

Since hitting that critical point, Bitcoin has been acting like that one friend who can’t make decisions. It’s been super sensitive to macro conditions, and it’s just struggling to make a comeback.

Bitcoin Rejected at $94K: A Hard ‘No’ from the Market

The 0.75 quantile proved its worth on December 3rd, when Bitcoin tried (and failed) to break through the $94K level. It reversed sharply and ended up lower. Ouch. The current price is hanging around $92,500, like a kid who can’t quite reach the top shelf.

The market can’t seem to settle down until it can get back to the 0.75 quantile, which would be around $95,800. Basically, Bitcoin needs to pull itself together, but who’s counting?

If Bitcoin really wants to prove it’s not a one-hit wonder, it’ll have to break above the 0.85 quantile, which is floating around $106,200. But, let’s be real-this is where the long-term trends strengthen and downside risk starts to disappear. So, unless Bitcoin has a secret stash of fairy dust, it’s going to take some work.

Bitcoin’s Chart: Is It Getting Tired? Probably.

The daily chart isn’t doing Bitcoin any favors either. The DMI shows the once-strong bullish strength is fading. Buyers seem to have lost their motivation, while sellers are putting their boots back on. It’s like a game of tug-of-war, but no one really wants to win.

The ADX, which tells us about trend strength, has started to flatten out. It’s a classic sign of indecision, or in simpler terms: “Who knows what’s going on anymore?”

The chart also shows that Bitcoin can’t seem to build a strong higher-low pattern. In other words, the buyers are too tired to fight the resistance that’s holding them down. No one’s out here flexing their muscle.

Macro Sensitivity: Bitcoin’s New Love Affair

With over a quarter of Bitcoin’s supply stuck in loss, it’s like Bitcoin is desperately seeking attention from any external catalyst. Even tiny changes in bond yields or liquidity conditions could sway the market. Just a little nudge, and Bitcoin might either go up or completely melt down. Romantic, right?

Until it breaks through that 0.75 quantile, price action will hang in the balance: Will it reset, with top buyers throwing in the towel? Or will it stabilize as sellers get too exhausted to keep the drama going? The suspense is killing me (not really).

Final Thoughts

  • Bitcoin’s failure at $94K confirms that the market is not ready to dance until it hits the $95.8K mark.
  • The next big move? It’s either a deep dive from top buyers or a brief nap while we wait for seller exhaustion to set in.

Read More

2025-12-04 21:17