Could Bitcoin Hit $100K Again in January? The Odds Are In! 😲💰

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Ah, Bitcoin! The tempestuous beast of the digital realm, it witnessed an exuberant influx of Spot ETFs in the early months of this year. The fervent demand from both the humble retail investor and the imposing institutional titan propelled this virtual currency to a staggering zenith of $126k in the first week of October-truly a spectacle worthy of the grandest Russian novel!

Yet, lo and behold! The past ten weeks have not been kind, for they ushered in a bear market, graced with the somber predictions of analysts, among them the astute Julio Moreno from CryptoQuant, who suggests that 2026 may not witness the jubilant return of all-time highs. Oh, how fickle is fortune!

As I write, the stablecoin supply appears to rise like a reluctant Comrade, hinting at potential buying power, albeit currently languishing on the sidelines. Should this mood shift, one might dare to dream of a Bitcoin rally to the fabled $100k in January, a prospect as tantalizing as a fine bottle of vodka on a frigid winter night.

Unstable Waters: Bitcoin Buyers Hesitate

A recent missive from AMBCrypto unveiled that our savvy market participants are donning their defensive armor. The 1-week 25-Delta Risk Reversal metric reveals that institutions are more inclined to protect their assets against price plummets rather than indulge in reckless gambles on aggressive breakouts. Oh, what a prudent bunch!

The daily chart, dear reader, paints a rather bleak portrait, with bearish trends dominating the landscape. Selling pressure hangs heavily in the air, and alas, buyers seem unable to muster a rally that could withstand the test of time. The valiant attempt to breach the $94k resistance was met with a resounding rejection-much like a peasant seeking audience with the Tsar!

For the past fortnight, the $90k level has emerged as a formidable fortress. A bullish advance beyond these resistances appears as remote as a Siberian summer. Yet the tides of fortune can be capricious, can’t they?

Why a Bitcoin Surge Beyond $90k May Not Be Just a Pipe Dream

Liquidity, dear friends, is the lodestar that guides prices. The cluster of short liquidations nestled between $91k and $96.4k, so close to Bitcoin’s current market price, whispers of a possible short-term rally-a delightful notion that might just propel us above $96k if it ignites a liquidation cascade. Ah, the merry dance of traders!

However, do keep in mind that such movements, driven by the derivatives market, might require a retreat, as traders seize the opportunity to pocket their gains or offload their holdings. After all, a prudent trader knows when to feast and when to fast!

Traders, Take Heed: A Call to Sidelined Vigilance

These market conditions, my dear compatriots, present considerable risk for both bulls and bears alike. The low liquidity during the festive season has led to multiple sharp rejections at the $90k resistance-a veritable drama unfolding before our eyes. Moreover, evidence suggests that sell pressure from long-term holders is reminiscent of a slumbering bear, minimal yet potent.

As the wise Benjamin Cowen remarked in November, a bounce to the 200-day moving average (currently positioned at $106.8k) would signify a macro lower high. Alas, we shan’t expect a rally to new heights of glory anytime soon.

Final Reflections

  • Bitcoin has found itself in a quagmire of indecision, facing repeated rejections at the $90k resistance over the past fortnight. What a tragicomedy!
  • The liquidity clustering overhead suggests that a rally to the ranges of $94k-$96k might be possible come January. Keep your hopes tempered, dear reader!

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2026-01-02 18:19