Will XRP’s Fate Hang by a Thread? 🧵

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Oh, dear XRP, your price clings above $2.08 like a cat to a hot tin roof, but alas! The breakout remains as elusive as a shadow in the fog. Not merely a matter of weakness, mind you, but rather a conundrum of timing. Just over yon past week, the XRP spot ETF inflows dwindled to their feeblest performance since the dawn of their trading; this misfortune synchronized with a notable lull in upward momentum.

At this juncture, long-term holders, those stoic guardians of patience, have begun purchasing with a fervor that would make even the most seasoned merchant blush. And so, we find ourselves amidst a peculiar tussle: the whims of institutional demand versus the steadfast resolve of the old guard, leaving XRP firmly planted at a crossroads.

The Inconvenient Truth of XRP ETF Inflows Awaits

XRP maintains its position within the phantasmagoric bounds of an inverse head and shoulders structure upon the daily chart. The pattern, as firm as ever, yet the long-awaited breakout lingers in suspense. Keeping above the right shoulder near $2.08, the price lies impotently far from shattering the neckline.

This procrastination dovetails with data from the ETFs themselves.

In the week brought to a close on January 9, XRP spot ETFs observed meager net inflows of a mere $38.07 million-a paltry sum since their commencement, plunging nearly 84% from the pinnacle reached in late November. Timing, as crucial as ever.

The steepest downturn in XRP’s fortunes occurred between January 6th and 9th, precisely as ETF demand experienced its most marked cooling.

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This revelation by no means negates the bullish pattern. It merely elucidates why the breakout remains as elusive as a ghost. Patterns such as the inverse head and shoulders require a steady stream of demand near the neckline-without this, the price action dawdles rather than surges.

Further intricacy disorients the path. The neckline itself, near $2.50, ascends considerably like a stalwart staircase, thereby demanding of XRP not mere prices of fortitude, but unwavering demand as well. Currently, the ETFs muster not that much awaited gusto.

Rallying of Holder Accumulation Against Friction

While institutional fervor in ETFs waned, another sea-change was afoot.

From January 9th to the morrow, XRP holder net position altered so drastically-from around 62.4 million XRP to a staggering 239.5 million XRP. This leap, of nearly 300% in a mere day, signals not short-lived gambles but rather earnest accumulation, as steadfast as time itself.

This event carries weight, for it counterbalances the lethargy of ETF demand. Even as the institutional support paused their advance, long-term holders, those patient beasts, made their bold move.

The cryptic cost basis heatmap lays bare where this fervent buying collides with formidable resistance.

The foremost significant supply cluster resides between $2.14 and $2.15, where an eye-popping 1.88 billion XRP were hoarded. XRP now saunters close beneath this bastion. Only should it vault above, the real supply barrier is breached.

To shatter this formidable cluster, XRP requires not just the notions of long-term holders but also the substantial aid from ETFs post the morrow’s dawn.

Ascending, the next pivotal cluster lies nestled between $2.48 and $2.50, wherein lies a trove of approximately 1.62 billion XRP. Aligning with the inverse head and shoulders neckline, its conquer would transcend mere technical victor-it would traverse dense layers of aged holders’ caches.

Therefore, the pause in ETF enthusiasm has not precipitated collapse. Long-term accumulation absorbs the strain, holding XRP steadfast, as it awaits the fateful demand trigger yet to come.

The Levels of XRP’s Fate: A Narrow Divide

XRP’s stakes now crumple between fervent buying and deferred desires. The forthcoming levels lie transparent before us.

The initial lookout shifts to $2.15, or more precisely, $2.146. A nightly close above this marking would place XRP beyond the nearest supply cluster, thus vindicating the recent hunter’s insistence.

Thereafter, $2.28 materializes, aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. Transcending it would unveil the pathway towards $2.42, and beyond to the awaited neckline near $2.50.

A swift ascent and triumph beyond $2.50 would trigger the inverse head and shoulders’ match, setting off the projected 34% flourish from prevailing levels.

However, on the opposing side, $2.06 stands steadfast as critical support. Any forfeiture of this region would diminish the right shoulder’s fortitude and further defer the bullish allure, tho it would not nullify it in total.

Presently, XRP’s price neither rebuffs nor embraces the breakout outright; it simmers in a state of watchful waiting. ETF demand ebbed at the most inopportune moment for its confirmation, yet long-term holders marched forth with vigor. The crux now lies in whether a fresh surge of demand will thrust XRP over $2.15, and on to $2.50, ere the unremitting vigour fades…

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2026-01-11 16:53