Bitcoin’s unyielding grip on the crypto market has become the holy grail for traders desperate for a sign that altcoins might finally rise from the ashes. At the moment, Bitcoin still clutches nearly 60% of the market’s wealth, a figure so stubborn it makes a stubborn donkey look like a convert.
However, according to a Bitcoin analyst, history suggests that once this balance begins to shift, the transition into altcoin season is as swift as a magician’s hand-often playing out within a tight one-to-two-month timeframe. One might say it’s the crypto equivalent of a train leaving the station, and the passengers are all waiting for a seat.
Why Bitcoin Dominance Matters For Altcoin Season
In his analysis, the analyst explained that Bitcoin dominance, also known as BTC.D, is an important factor in determining when capital begins rotating into altcoins. BTC dominance measures Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market capitalization, and declines in this metric have historically coincided with explosive altcoin rallies. At the time of writing, CoinMarketCap puts the Bitcoin dominance at 59%. One might wonder if this is a sign of weakness-or merely a prelude to a grander scheme.
Looking back at 2017, the BTC.D chart shows Bitcoin’s dominance falling very quickly from around 96% in early March to about 60% by mid-May. That drop was the playout of one of the most aggressive altcoin rallies the market has ever seen. It’s a wonder the altcoins didn’t sprout wings and fly off to a better climate.
A similar pattern played out in 2021, when BTC dominance fell from about 60% in early April to near 40% by mid-May. That move coincided with another powerful altcoin expansion, pushing Ethereum and several other major altcoins to new all-time highs. Many of those peaks, particularly among meme coins such as Dogecoin and Shiba Inu, are unbroken to this day. One might say the altcoins are holding out for a better offer.
The most important takeaway from both cycles, according to the analyst, is the speed of the move. In each case, it took just one to two months for a full-blown altcoin season to unfold once Bitcoin dominance began rolling over decisively. It’s a reminder that in crypto, patience is a virtue-and impatience is a sin.
BTC’s Next Move Could Decide Everything
The analyst notes that many investors underestimate how quickly this transition can happen. After waiting through multiple years of accumulation and consolidation, market participants often grow impatient just before the final stage. Historically, however, altcoin season has tended to play out very quickly once conditions align, not gradually over many months. Therefore, investors waiting for an altcoin season can still hold on for that move and not lose focus. Or, as the old adage goes, “The early bird gets the worm-but the second mouse gets the cheese.”
He also pointed to macro signals supporting a risk-on environment, referencing strength in assets such as small-cap equities, gold, and silver hitting all-time highs. These conditions are lining up for capital flowing into higher-beta assets once confidence returns. One might say the market is ready to take a leap of faith-or at least a leap of crypto.
Nonetheless, altcoins cannot sustain a true breakout without BTC first making a convincing move. If Bitcoin fails to push to a new all-time high, altcoins may see only short-lived relief rallies. On the other hand, a new Bitcoin all-time high could act as the deciding factor that brings retail traders back into the market and eventually leads to FOMO plus a breakout altcoin season. It’s a delicate dance, and the stakes are higher than a gambler’s last chip.
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2026-01-20 23:46