Bitcoin’s 71% Profit Stumble: The Universe Says ‘Nope’

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Bitcoin is currently facing a critical test, which is probably just a minor inconvenience compared to the existential dread of the universe. Volatility has returned, and the price action is as stable as a particularly uncooperative teacup. Bulls are attempting to defend the $90,000 level, a psychological zone so robust it’s practically a fortress made of wishful thinking. But confidence? It’s about as reliable as a politician’s promise.

According to top analyst Darkfost, the market is still missing a key ingredient for a sustainable bullish continuation: a broad base of investors sitting in profit. Or, as he put it, “We need more people to be happy with their investments, which is like asking a penguin to dance the tango.” Despite Bitcoin’s resilience, there aren’t enough participants in positive territory to build the kind of structural comfort that fuels long-lasting uptrends. It’s like trying to build a house with a bag of confetti.

This matters because latent profits are not inherently bearish. In healthy conditions, when most holders are in profit, the market tends to stabilize. Investors feel less pressure to sell, panic fades, and holding becomes easier. That environment often supports stronger trend development and reduces the risk of sharp downside reactions. Or, as someone once said, “If everyone’s happy, the party can’t end too badly… probably.”

Still, Darkfost warns that profit dynamics only help up to a point. When unrealized gains become extreme across the entire market, they can eventually turn into overhead supply, triggering corrective phases. It’s like having a giant balloon filled with helium and a tiny pin. You know it’s going to pop, but you keep inflating it anyway.

Bitcoin’s Profit Structure Still Isn’t Bullish Enough

Profit distribution across holders can become a double-edged sword for Bitcoin. When the supply in profit climbs above 95% and approaches 100%, unrealized gains stop being supportive and begin turning into overhead pressure. At those extremes, investors have little incentive to hold through volatility, and even small shocks can trigger profit-taking that fuels corrective phases. It’s like a tightrope walker wearing a blindfold and a party hat.

From a structural perspective, Darkfost argues the market needs to reclaim the 75% supply-in-profit threshold to rebuild a healthier foundation. Historically, Bitcoin has tended to sustain bullish conditions when this metric holds above that level, as most participants remain comfortable and less reactive to downside volatility. Or, as the analysts put it, “We need more people to be happy with their investments, which is like asking a penguin to dance the tango.”

Right now, however, the market sits near 71%, after dropping as low as 64%. Darkfost notes that readings this low have often appeared near the early stages of bear markets, even when the headline drawdown looks relatively contained. In this case, the decline of roughly 31% was enough to push a large portion of recent buyers underwater, suggesting many entered late in the move. It’s like buying a ticket to a concert only to realize the band is playing in a different city.

The recent rebound briefly lifted supply in profit back to 75%, but it failed to hold. That rejection likely reflects investors using the bounce to exit at breakeven or reduce losses. Going forward, reclaiming 75%-80% would signal stabilization, while further weakness could amplify panic-driven selling. It’s the financial equivalent of a toddler throwing a tantrum at a buffet.

Volatility Keeps Bulls on the Defensive

Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize near the $90,000 mark after a volatile correction that reshaped the market structure over the past few months. The chart shows BTC printing a major peak around $125,000 before rolling over into a sharp selloff. Accelerating into November and eventually finding a local floor near the mid-$80,000s. That drop marked a decisive break in momentum and triggered a shift toward a lower range, where price has struggled to regain prior support levels. It’s like a rollercoaster that’s stuck on the loop-de-loop.

Since the rebound off the lows, Bitcoin has moved into a consolidation phase, repeatedly testing resistance around $92,000-$95,000 but failing to generate sustained continuation. Each recovery attempt has been met with selling pressure, suggesting that short-term supply is still active near former breakdown zones. The latest bounce back toward $90,000 signals buyers are defending the level. But the structure still looks fragile without a clean breakout. It’s like trying to balance a spoon on your nose while a hurricane is trying to knock it off.

Volume also reflects uncertainty, with higher activity during selloffs and more muted participation during rebounds. Bulls likely need to hold $88,000-$90,000 and reclaim the $92,000 region with conviction. Or, as the market might say, “We’ll believe it when we see it, which might be never.”

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2026-01-23 06:05