Shocking Truth: Is XRP’s Price Bounce Just a Disguise for Desperate Sell-Offs?

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Well, well, well! If it isn’t the XRP price pulling off a remarkable Houdini act, bouncing back over 30% from its early February low of $1.12. It looked like a triumphant comeback, as if the token was trying to audition for a superhero role in the crypto universe, soaring toward the $1.50 mark. On the face of it, this rally seemed rather promising. Momentum indicators were in a celebratory mood, and traders were buzzing about a possible trend reversal-like kids at a candy store.

But alas, reality has a knack for crashing parties. Blockchain data has donned its detective hat and revealed a different narrative. Instead of a hearty accumulation of tokens, the on-chain metrics are waving red flags, suggesting that many holders were using the rebound to scamper out of their losing positions. Yes, you heard it right-selling at a loss has become the hot new trend. A burning question arises: Is this bounce a sign of genuine demand or merely a lifeline thrown to those poor trapped sellers?

Technical Setup Shows Bounce Potential, But It Needs Confirmation

Peering at the 12-hour chart, XRP is nestled cozily within a falling wedge pattern, flaunting a 56% breakout potential above the upper trendline. Yet, for this pattern to activate, XRP must first reclaim its short-term moving average-the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA)-which is acting like that stubborn bouncer at an exclusive club. In early January, a clean break above the EMA sent XRP on a joyride of nearly 30%. Can it do it again?

But wait, there’s more! Momentum is showing early signs of improvement, like a toddler taking its first wobbly steps.

Between January 31 and February 9, XRP managed to print a lower low in price, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI)-that moody momentum indicator-decided to form a higher low. This bullish divergence suggests that perhaps, just maybe, the sellers are losing their grip.

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On its lonesome, this setup hints at a possible bounce. But here’s the kicker: technical patterns only work when holders are willing to stick around like loyal fans at a concert. To truly gauge whether this bounce has any legs, we need to scrutinize how investors are behaving on-chain, like a nosy neighbor peeking through the curtains.

SOPR Shows Holders Are Still Selling at Losses Despite the Bounce

One of the clearest warning signals comes from the Spent Output Profit Ratio, or SOPR-a fancy term for measuring whether coins being moved on-chain are sold at a profit or a loss. When it hovers above 1, it’s party time for profit-takers. But when it dips below 1, it spells out a loss-selling extravaganza.

Since late January, XRP’s SOPR has been playing hard to get, remaining below 1 for over ten consecutive days.

This is peculiarly unusual. After a more than 30% rebound, short-term traders would typically be basking in profits. However, in the case of XRP, profitability seems to have taken an extended vacation. Selling at a loss persists even as the price shows signs of recovery, which means many holders are still exiting underwater positions. Ouch!

In layman’s terms, the market isn’t witnessing a confident profit-taking spree; it’s more like a fire drill for stress-driven exits. To identify who’s responsible for this ruckus, we need to peek into the holder cohorts, like detectives solving a mystery.

Holder Data Confirms the XRP Bounce Is Being Used to Exit, Not Accumulate

The HODL Waves group categorizes XRP wallets based on how long these savvy investors have held onto their coins. This helps us spot which groups are buying or selling, much like watching a game of musical chairs.

The most eye-popping change appeared within the 24-hour holder cohort. On February 6, they controlled about 1% of XRP’s circulating supply. Fast forward a few days, and that share plummeted to a mere 0.09%. That’s a staggering decline of over 90%.

These were the thrill-seekers who jumped in during volatility, only to rush for the exits as soon as the rebound hit. But hang on, the selling frenzy didn’t stop there.

The 1-month to 3-month cohort, which had been accumulating heavily in January when XRP was dancing around $2.07, is also trimming their exposure. Their slice of the supply dropped from roughly 14.48% in mid-January to about 9.48% recently. A decline of approximately 35%.

These holders remain underwater. Instead of sticking around for a full recovery, they’re using rallies as a chance to minimize losses. Together, these two cohorts explain why SOPR has been in the doldrums for so long.

Short-term traders are bailing on failed trades, while medium-term holders are cutting their losses. This behavior is characteristic of distribution phases, not the joyous beginnings of a bull market. And yes, it directly impacts the price structure, like a kid throwing a tantrum in the candy aisle.

Cost Basis Data Shows Why $1.44-$1.54 Is a Wall for the XRP Price

Cost basis heat maps reveal where large groups of investors bought their coins, and these zones often transform into resistance levels when the price swings back into them. For XRP, the strongest near-term cluster lives between $1.42 and $1.44. More than 660 million XRP were scooped up in this range, creating a formidable sell zone.

As the price creeps closer to this area, many holders see their break-even point. After enduring weeks of losses, they might decide it’s time to exit stage left. Above this cluster sits the $1.54 level, which aligns perfectly with EMA resistance. Together, these zones act as a barricade that XRP has repeatedly failed to surpass. Each time XRP attempts to rally into this territory, selling pressure intensifies. This aligns seamlessly with the distribution patterns observed in both SOPR and HODL Waves.

If XRP stumbles again near $1.44, downside risks could rear their ugly heads. A rejection could send the price tumbling back toward $1.23 and possibly $1.12-the recent low. And that would represent a decline of more than 20% from current levels. Yikes!

Only a sustained break above $1.54, coupled with improving profitability and reduced selling, would give this XRP price structure a fighting chance. Fingers crossed, everyone!

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2026-02-10 10:01