Will $3 Billion Options Expiry Shake the Foundations of Bitcoin and Ethereum?

by

Today, as the clock strikes the hour of eight in the morning UTC, a most substantial sum of nearly $3 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options shall meet its fate on Deribit. This circumstance has placed the derivatives markets under an observant, if not anxious, scrutiny.

As we approach this momentous expiry, one cannot help but ponder whether the recent stabilization of prices signifies a mere interlude or perhaps the dawn of a more pronounced directional movement.

$3 Billion Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expiry – A Test of Market Fortitude Following Liquidation Turmoil

At present, Bitcoin finds itself trading at the rather respectable figure of $66,372, with a max pain level lurking around $74,000 and a total notional open interest that exceeds a staggering $2.53 billion. One wonders if the financial gods are smiling or merely toying with us.

Meanwhile, Ethereum meanders near the $1,950 mark, accompanied by about $425 million in notional open interest and a max pain level tantalizingly close around $2,100. The market appears to be quite the theatrical performance, does it not?

The figures suggest that a considerable portion of open positions would thrive should prices ascend toward max pain levels, yet the sentiment enveloping the options market remains one of caution, akin to a lady at a ball contemplating whether to accept a dance invitation.

Despite a recent rebound from last week’s rather sharp sell-off-one could almost hear the collective gasp of traders-options metrics indicate that individuals remain vigilant against the specter of downside risk.

Analysts at Laevitas have observed that Bitcoin’s risk reversals are heavily weighted towards puts, a sign of prudent caution, if ever there was one.

“BTC 1-week and 1-month 25-delta RRs have indeed recovered from their extreme lows, yet they persistently remain notably negative at approximately −13 and −11 vols, respectively, indicating an unyielding demand for downside protection,” stated our astute derivatives analyst.

Such risk reversals serve to gauge the sentiments within the derivatives markets, and sustained negative readings often signal that traders are willing to pay handsomely for protective puts, reflecting fears of further declines-truly a melodrama of financial misfortune!

Liquidations, Put Skew Shock, and a Fragile Shift Towards Calls as Expiry Approaches

Our current cautious sentiment follows a rather dramatic market affair wherein Bitcoin briefly dipped below the illustrious $70,000 mark, triggering a veritable cascade of liquidations and extreme imbalances within the derivatives realm.

Analysts at Deribit remarked that this event engendered one of the most pronounced shifts towards put demand witnessed in many a year.

“When BTC breached the $70K threshold last week, it set off cascading liquidations, leading to one of the most extreme put skew movements seen in years before the price rebounded toward the $67K range,” the perceptive analysts noted.

Such occurrences tend to leave an indelible mark upon the psyche of the market, with traders adopting a defensive posture even after signs of stability reappear on the horizon.

However, in more recent days, derivatives positioning appears to be undergoing a charming transformation, as some traders tentatively rotate back into call options, eager to embrace newfound volatility as it wanes from panic-induced heights. Observers at Deribit surmise that we now stand at a rather critical juncture.

🚨 Options Expiry Alert 🚨

At 08:00 UTC tomorrow, over $2.9B in crypto options shall expire on Deribit. $BTC: $2.53B notional | Put/Call: 0.76 | Max Pain: $75K $ETH: $406M notional | Put/Call: 0.89 | Max Pain: $2,150

After last week’s break below $70K triggered liquidations and…

– Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) February 12, 2026

Options expiries of such magnitude can sometimes exert a gravitational influence upon prices, particularly when vast clusters of open interest congregate near specific strike levels. One might liken it to a great social gathering, where the right connections could lead to delightful outcomes.

While short-term positioning has shown signs of improvement, certain indicators suggest that institutional traders remain skeptical regarding the medium-term outlook. How delightfully complicated it all is!

According to the analysts at Greeks.live, put options continue to reign supreme in the Bitcoin derivatives markets, much like a favored suitor at a ball.

“Put options maintain dominance in the market, with over $1 billion in BTC put options traded today, accounting for 37% of the total volume. Most of these are out-of-the-money options, priced between $60,000 and $65,000,” they opined.

This may well indicate that institutions harbor a rather gloomy perspective on the trajectory of the market for the medium to long term. Indeed, expectations of a bearish trend loom ominously in the next month or two.

The settlement of today’s options expiry could either alleviate pressure and stabilize the markets or serve as the catalyst for yet another tempestuous bout of volatility as we venture into the weekend. And so, the dance continues!

Read More

2026-02-13 10:11