If you thought Bitcoin was a rollercoaster, meet its evil twin: Bitcoin Whales on Binance. According to crypto analyst Darkfost, these digital leviathans are flooding the platform with BTC, which is about as comforting as seeing the last cookie disappear from the jar. Why? Because when whales start swimming toward an exchange, it’s usually code for “I’m cashing out before the next market tantrum.”
The Whale Inflow Ratio is like a giant game of musical chairs, except the chairs are “sell orders” and the music is a cryptic algorithm comparing the top 10 BTC transactions to total inflows. Spoiler: the whales are winning.
To make this chaos easier to digest, someone kindly smoothed out the data with a 7-day moving average. Because nothing says “clarity” like averaging your anxiety over a week.
Between February 2nd and 15th, the whale inflow ratio ballooned from 0.4 to 0.62. That’s not just a number-it’s a neon sign blinking, “Whales are herding here, and they’re not bringing snacks.”
Darkfost, ever the optimist, called this “uncertain market conditions.” Yes, because nothing says “certainty” like watching millions evaporate like morning dew.
AMBCrypto noted that short-term holders were throwing in the towel like it’s a losing game of Monopoly. Meanwhile, the big boys are grinding their teeth, ready to pile onto BTC’s back like it’s a poorly constructed snowman.
Short-term Bitcoin price expectations
Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. decided to weaponize the Short-Term Holder (STH) Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). Because who doesn’t want to know if their coins are being sold at a loss? The SOPR had been below 1 for weeks, which is crypto-speak for “panic mode: sell everything.”
When BTC briefly danced up to $70.9k, the SOPR flickered above 1-just long enough for the market to yawn and say, “Nah, I’m out.” Now it’s back to 0.975, which is about as exciting as a spreadsheet error.
The weekly STH SOPR is still stuck below 1, because apparently, the market’s short-term memory loss extends to its wallet.
Meanwhile, the STH MVRV Ratio has plummeted below the -1 standard deviation of its 155-day mean. Translation: short-term holders are drowning in red ink. For context, the MVRV ratio is just a fancy way of asking, “Are you broke yet?”
Values below -1 STD mean we’re in “oversold zone” territory. To escape, BTC needs to climb from 0.75 to 0.82-because nothing signals “recovery” like nudging a decimal point up.
Put it all together, and it’s a recipe for disaster: any price bounce will be sold off like hotcakes at a bear market brunch. In short, there’s a decent chance BTC will drop to $65k faster than you can say “HODL.”
But hey, institutional investors are still bullish. J.P. Morgan thinks BTC could hit $266k by 2026. That’s either confidence or a really good crystal ball.
Final Summary
- The Bitcoin price might have a little meltdown at $65k this week.
- Onchain metrics scream, “Short-term holders are ready to sell anything that moves!”
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2026-02-18 00:37