Bitcoin’s Dip: A Dance of Deception or a Golden Opportunity?

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With the Bitcoin price meandering like a drunk penguin on a tightrope, determining a buying entry has become as challenging as deciphering a Shakespearean sonnet in a storm. Yet, a key on-chain metric has now taken center stage, offering insights so profound they might as well be whispered by a fortune-teller in a velvet hat.

Is Buying Bitcoin Now The Right Time?

The cryptocurrency market’s volatility has been as predictable as a British summer, keeping Bitcoin well below the $70,000 mark. Investors, ever the hopeful romantics, await a definitive signal-preferably one that arrives with a champagne toast and a bouquet of roses.

While the masses ponder their next move, Joao Wedson, a market expert and founder of Alphractal, has unveiled a chart so dire it might make a seasoned gambler weep. After a period of bearish action, Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics are beginning to stabilize, but a buy signal? Ah, that remains as elusive as a unicorn in a zoo.

The sole metric in question? The Bitcoin Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) Trend Signal. Currently, it’s on a downward spiral, suggesting market players are either taking smaller profits or suffering losses with the grace of a tragic opera. However, a confirmed bottom signal requires it to dive further below the lower dotted line-a feat akin to convincing a cat to take a bath.

Despite pockets of accumulation and recent price consolidation, the indicator that once heralded market bottoms has yet to sing its triumphant aria. Meanwhile, the expert claims a price bottom may arrive sooner than in past cycles-though “sooner” is a relative term in the world of crypto.

Furthermore, there may be multiple purchase signals, one for the upcoming months and another for a later stage of the cycle. In the meantime, Wedson’s advice? To continue monitoring the Alpha metrics with the vigilance of a spy in a spy movie.

BTC Latent Profits Are Fading

Following an analysis of the Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), Darkfost reveals that latent profits are melting away like ice in a sauna. The metric, a reliable gauge of market sentiment, shows that losses now dominate the scene, marking the final act of a tragicomedy.

Currently, the metric has fallen to 0.18, and a drop into negative territory signals that latent losses are as common as rain in London. This positioning implies the average latest profit is 18%, nearing zero. Meanwhile, the six-month average sits at 0.42, a stark reminder of how quickly corrections have accelerated.

When the metric plummets this swiftly, it’s a sign Bitcoin is still in a bear phase. With reduced latent profits, investors become as unstable as a teeter-totter on a windy day. Darkfost notes that a trend reversal under these circumstances seems as likely as a parrot reciting Shakespeare.

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2026-02-20 22:41