Ethereum Bottoms? Fundstrat Sees 1.7K as a Quirky Bottom

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Fundstrat’s head of digital asset strategy, Sean Farrell, has a notion that would look at home on a towel-wrapped beach in the middle of a cosmic storm: Ethereum might be flirting with the market bottom, or perhaps already nesting there, if the universe is feeling generous or merely bored.

Citing historical data tied to realized price and past cycle lows, Farrell projected that the largest altcoin may find relief somewhere between $1,360 and $1,770, as if the numbers themselves were auditioning for a Terry Pratchett-esque farce about supply and demand in a candle factory.

Realized price is, in plain terms, the average cost basis for on-chain holders and tends to behave as a polite if stubborn guardian at the gates. In the past, ETH’s spectacular drawdowns have tended to ease up right after crossing this line, as if the line were a very calm bouncer who happens to know all the best jokes about volatility.

In 2022, ETH formed a bottom after dropping 39% below the realized price. Conversely, in Q1 2025, the altcoin rebounded after dropping 21% below its on-chain support level, which is to say it took a deep breath and decided not to panic at the same time as the universe was briefly distracted by a shooting star.

According to Farrell, if the trend repeats the 2022 pattern, it would imply a potential bottom at around $1,367. On the other hand, if the 2025 pattern plays out, then the altcoin may finally bounce at $1,770. It’s all very precise, except that in markets precision is a mood and a weather report at the same time.

Short-term headwinds

In December, the analyst correctly predicted that BTC would drop to $60K and ETH to $1,800 earlier in 2026, noting that the market may recover in the second half of 2026, or perhaps in a spare afternoon when the Galactic Federation is otherwise indisposed.

That said, another broader market drawdown dragged ETH to a low of $1,747 on Binance. If the 2025 scenario plays out, the altcoin could already have bottomed out. But if it follows the 2022 pathway, then another 30% decline to $1.36K from the current $1.94K level could still be on the cards, which is to say the plot thickens like a good fog in a science fiction novel.

But Farrell expects an 80% rally in the next 12 months if ETH eases above $1.3K, which is the sort of optimism that makes even the coffee machines perk up and ask if they can invest in something too.

In the meantime, however, the overall selling from U.S. investors (including ETFs) seen in early February has eased significantly. However, they haven’t flipped to net buying yet, as indicated by the negative reading on the Coinbase Premium Index, which is to say the market is still politely waiting for someone to shout “buy” with a megaphone made of spreadsheets.

Historically, a strong and sustainable ETH recovery has been supported by U.S. buying pressure. So, unless it turns positive, the ETH price may struggle to reclaim $2000 for a while, which is a frustrating sentence but an honest one, like a hitchhiker’s guide that forgot to lend you a towel.

Overall, ETH may have reached its potential level of reversal to the upside, according to Fundstrat’s Farrell, but there was still no strong demand. Should renewed U.S. spot ETH ETF inflows follow suit, maybe the altcoin may find relief above $1,300 or $1,700, which is to say the plot might not be quite over yet, and the universe might still be listening to a very loud saxophone.

Final Summary

  • Ethereum may be close to a market cycle bottom above $1.3K if the current trend follows the 2022 pattern.
  • ETH may struggle to hold $2000 in the near term unless strong buying pressure resumes.

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2026-02-21 05:11