Well, slap my knee and call me astonished! BitMEX’s own Arthur Hayes has gone and penned another essay, this time on March 2nd, claiming that a prolonged tangle with Iran will have the Federal Reserve printing money like it’s going out of style, and Bitcoin will soar higher than a Missouri riverboat on a full head of steam.
His grand theory, you see, is built upon a pattern as predictable as a politician’s promise: every time the U.S. gets itself into a scrape in the Middle East, the Fed starts slashing rates like a barber with a dull razor. And Iran, he reckons, won’t be any different.
War and the Fed: A Dance as Old as Time
In his essay, cleverly titled “iOS Warfare” (because why not mix apples and oranges?), Hayes takes us on a historical jaunt, linking U.S. military adventures in the Middle East to the Fed’s monetary easing. Seems every president since ’85 has sent missiles flying or boots marching into that sandy patch of the world, and lo and behold, the Fed follows suit with rate cuts faster than a hound dog after a rabbit.
He trots out three examples, mind you. First, the Gulf War under old Bush Sr. The Fed, after a bit of hemming and hawing, cut rates in ’90, even as oil prices were making wallets weep. Then, after 9/11, Greenspan, with a dramatic flourish, slashed rates by 50 basis points, citing the need to prop up the economy like a wobbly table leg. And let’s not forget Obama’s Afghan surge, where rates were already at zero, and the printing presses were humming like a choir on Sunday.
Now, Hayes turns his gaze to Trump and his Iran antics. He reckons regime change in Iran has been the bipartisan hobbyhorse since ’79, giving the Fed the perfect excuse to open the monetary spigots wide. He even throws in a chart showing how veterans’ spending has ballooned alongside declining Fed rates after each military escapade. It’s enough to make a man wonder if the whole thing isn’t just one big, expensive game of dominoes.
Hold Your Horses, Bitcoin Bulls
But hold on to your hats, Bitcoin enthusiasts! Hayes, despite his rosy long-term view, advises caution in the near term. He says, and I quote, “We do not know how long Trump will remain interested in spending billions, if not trillions, of dollars reshaping Iran’s politics to his liking. The prudent action is to wait and see.” Wise words from a man who’s seen his fair share of market rollercoasters.
“We do not know how long Trump will remain interested in spending billions, if not trillions, of dollars reshaping Iran’s politics to his liking,” Hayes wrote. “The prudent action is to wait and see.”
Bitcoin, at the time of this scribbling, was trading around $66,200, down nearly 30% year-over-year and a whopping 47% below its all-time high of $126,000 back in October 2025. The poor thing has been on a five-month losing streak, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index stuck in “extreme fear” territory. Seems even the digital gold has its bad days.
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2026-03-02 06:36