Bitcoin Soars Past $70k, Stocks Rebound-Bond Yields Skyrocket, Fed Cuts Vanish!

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<a href="https://pricpr.com/btc-usd/">Bitcoin</a> and stocks stabilize after early-week slide. The bond market isn’t convinced.Markets

What to know:

  • Bitcoin and global stocks have rebounded from an early-week sell-off sparked by the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict.
  • Bond yields, however, continue to climb as traders reassess the outlook for inflation and price out Fed rate cuts.
  • Strong U.S. economic data and the prospect of a prolonged energy-driven inflation shock call for caution.

After a shaky start to the week caused by conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran – which led to falling prices for Bitcoin and stocks, and a jump in oil prices – both markets have recovered somewhat. However, the bond market is suggesting continued worry, with rising interest rates indicating fears of ongoing inflation and decreasing expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates soon.

Bitcoin, the most valuable cryptocurrency, was trading above $70,000 on Friday, gaining almost 10% throughout the week. The price peaked at nearly $74,000 on Wednesday after dipping to around $65,000 over the weekend due to global political concerns affecting markets.

Stock futures followed a similar pattern of recovery. S&P 500 futures fell to a low of 6,718 points on Tuesday before bouncing back to around 6,840 points by Wednesday.

Markets initially fell as oil prices jumped after reports that Iran had blocked oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for crude oil. Prices then stabilized when the U.S. acted quickly to reassure investors, offering naval protection and insurance for tankers passing through the area.

Still, the bond market remains uneasy.

Interest rates on U.S. Treasury bonds have been going up. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has increased for four days in a row, rising from 3.93% to 4.15%. Because bond prices and yields move in opposite directions, this means bond prices have fallen. The yield on the two-year Treasury note, which reacts more quickly to changes in interest rate forecasts, has also increased significantly, going from 3.37% to almost 3.60%.

As a crypto investor, I’m watching bond yields climb, and it seems like the market is starting to think the Federal Reserve might need to keep interest rates higher for longer. The big jump in energy prices, caused by the current global conflicts, is making people worry about inflation coming back, and that’s what’s driving this shift in thinking. It could definitely impact crypto, so I’m keeping a close eye on it.

Investors are now less optimistic about the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates twice this year. Before the recent conflict, there was almost an 80% chance they expected two 25-basis-point cuts, but now the likelihood is less than 50%, according to CME Fed funds futures.

As a crypto investor, I’m noticing some interesting signals in the market right now. Bryan Tan from Wintermute pointed out to me that yields are going up, and that’s a sign there’s some underlying uncertainty even with this recent price increase. It suggests not everyone is fully convinced this rally will keep going.

Despite a strong economy – indicated by positive reports in services and job growth – rising energy prices are fueling inflation. This combination often causes the Federal Reserve to delay making any changes to its policies. Adding to this, the Senate is now considering the nomination of a known inflation hawk, which increases the uncertainty surrounding future Fed decisions, according to Tan.

Experts point out that when oil prices rise, it usually takes time for prices to go up across the world. This means interest rates might stay high for a while, which could limit how much stocks and cryptocurrencies increase in value.

Oil prices generally increase slowly over several weeks following significant global events. According to analyst Jack Prandelli, prices usually rise by 20–30% within about two months. Initially, the market doesn’t fully account for potential supply problems. The biggest price jumps usually occur when actual disruptions to oil supplies begin to affect the amount of oil flowing through the market and stored in inventories.

The U.S. economy has been performing well recently, which is pushing up interest rates and leading investors to believe that interest rate cuts may not happen as soon as expected. New data released on Tuesday showed continued growth in the service sector in February, with a key measure rising to 56.1. Additionally, private companies added 63,000 jobs, marking the biggest increase since July 2025.

All eyes are now on Friday’s jobs report and how much wages are increasing. If the numbers are surprisingly strong, it could reduce the likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates and cause more turbulence in the financial markets.

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2026-03-06 08:43