Altcoins: A Bounce or a Mirage? 🤔💰

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For years, the altcoin market has been a shadow of its former self, overshadowed by the relentless dominance of Bitcoin. Despite a few fleeting moments of glory, most altcoins remain far from their once-lofty peaks, burdened by investor doubt and the gravitational pull of BTC. Yet, whispers of change are beginning to stir. In recent days, a few resilient altcoins have started to show signs of life, as the broader market conditions seem to be improving.

Top analyst Carl Runefelt has unveiled a technical setup that suggests the altcoin market is now bouncing off a major support zone. This revelation has sparked a flurry of debate among traders and investors. Is this the dawn of a long-awaited altseason, or just a fleeting moment of relief before the market plunges again?

The bounce coincides with a gradual easing of macroeconomic uncertainty and a return of liquidity to the crypto market. However, many key resistance levels remain unbroken, and overall confidence in altcoins is still lacking. While the current setup is promising, the real test will be whether this rally can break through critical levels and sustain higher prices.

Altcoins Eye a Breakout as Ethereum Holds the Key

Altcoins are still nearly 50% below their all-time highs, but the mood is shifting. Bulls are gearing up for a potential breakout across the board, with growing anticipation that a surge could be imminent once Ethereum clears its current resistance zone. Since early May, ETH has been stuck in a well-defined consolidation range, and altcoins have mirrored this sideways behavior, struggling to gain traction without a clear signal from the market’s second-largest asset.

Carl Runefelt recently shared insights indicating that the altcoin market is showing signs of life. By analyzing the TOTAL3 chart, which tracks the combined market cap of all cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, Runefelt points out that altcoins are bouncing off key support in BTC terms. This could be the start of a recovery rally, especially if capital starts to rotate from BTC into altcoins in the coming sessions.

Historically, altcoins flourish when Ethereum takes the lead. A confirmed breakout above the $2,800 resistance zone could ignite broad participation and kickstart a new altseason. The current market structure suggests that many investors are positioning early, hoping that macroeconomic clarity and market stability will fuel a risk-on sentiment.

However, the rally is not yet confirmed. Bulls still need Ethereum to break out decisively and maintain momentum above recent highs. If that happens, many oversold altcoins could see sharp recoveries and set the stage for a broader market expansion. For now, patience and timing remain key as traders watch ETH and TOTAL3 closely for signals of the next leg up.

TOTAL3 Chart Shows Key Rebound from Macro Support

The TOTAL3 chart, which measures the total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, is showing early signs of recovery after a prolonged period of weakness. As of now, the chart reflects a bounce from the $830 billion level, which aligns closely with the 100-week simple moving average (SMA), currently acting as dynamic support. This level has historically been a critical pivot zone, especially in mid-cycle consolidations.

The market cap is currently near $875 billion, still over 40% below the previous cycle’s peak, but bullish momentum is building. The recent weekly candle has posted a strong green body, suggesting renewed interest in the altcoin segment. Volume has also picked up, indicating growing confidence among participants as many altcoins recover from deeply oversold conditions.

Technically, this bounce could signal the beginning of a new macro leg higher, especially if the 50-week SMA is reclaimed and price holds above $900 billion. The overall structure remains constructive, with higher lows forming since late 2022 and price compressing into a potential breakout formation.

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2025-07-11 05:12