One gathers from Mr. Matt Hougan, a gentleman apparently tasked with divining the future of Bitcoin at a firm called Bitwise (a name redolent of efficiency, no doubt), that the quaint notion of a predictable four-year cycle in the cryptocurrency’s fortunes is, shall we say, passé. The old levers of supply reduction, interest rate adjustments, and the ever-present threat of collapse, once so reliably dramatic, now seem to be…faltering. One suspects the market has simply grown bored with such predictability. 😩
The Halving: A Diminishing Spectacle
Mr. Hougan observes, with the air of a scientist noting the inevitable entropy of the universe, that halving – the periodic reduction in the creation of new Bitcoins – becomes progressively less thrilling with each iteration. Apparently, cutting the supply in half used to incite something akin to a feeding frenzy. How very vulgar.
Now, with a market capitalization in the hundreds of billions (one assumes in some rather dubious currency), the effect is somewhat muted. The triumphant 150% rallies of 2016 and 2020 are now merely modest hops of under 50%. The decline! The utter, ghastly decline!
It also appears that the Federal Reserve, that bastion of sensible monetary policy, has been rather obliging, refraining from the brutal tightening that previously sent Bitcoin reeling. They seem to have taken a liking to it, or at least realized better than to poke the bear. One can only hope this benevolence continues.
Why, pray tell, is the four-year cycle deceased?
1) The forces that have created prior four-year cycles are weaker:
i) The halving is half as important every four years; (one does wish they’d thought of this sooner)
ii) The interest rate cycle is positive for crypto, not negative (as it was in 2018 and 2022); (a rare bit of good fortune)
iii) Blow-up risk is… (presumably ever-present, one doesn’t hold one’s breath)
— Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) July 25, 2025
Institutional Involvement: A Most Serious Business
It would seem that Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are the new engine of growth – and operate on a rather pedestrian timescale of 5 to 10 years. Over ten billion dollars has flowed into these, which is, one supposes, quite a lot of money. Concerningly, it seems to be steady?
Furthermore, those frightfully important pensions and endowments are finally deigning to notice Bitcoin, though these things take time, naturally. One imagines armies of actuaries poring over spreadsheets, finally concluding that a small gamble on digital ephemera might be acceptable.
DID I HEAR SUPER CYCLE??? (One sincerely hopes not)
The four-year cycle is dead and adoption killed it.@Matt_Hougan says we’re going higher in 2026. (A highly dubious claim)
Early profit takers will be left behind!!! (Good riddance, one says)
Full break down with @JSeyff and @Matt_Hougan in comments
— Kyle Chassé / DD (@kyle_chasse) July 25, 2025
Regulatory Shuffling and Fiscal Novelties
January 2025 marked the bracing arrival of “regulatory clarity”, including rules governing custody, taxation, and licensing. A boon for systemic risk, naturally. Though one suspects the industry will swiftly find ways to circumvent them, as is their wont.
The newly enacted “Genius Act” (a name that inspires little confidence) has apparently opened the doors to prime brokerage platforms. Billions, they say, will be invested. In the meantime, one will stick to more reliable investments, like vintage port.
Finally, we have these “Treasury firms,” offering short-term lending and yield products. Mr. Hougan flags them as a potential source of trouble should they, inevitably, overextend themselves. A new crisis, admirably adapting to the times. 🙄
Read More
- MNT PREDICTION. MNT cryptocurrency
- HYPE PREDICTION. HYPE cryptocurrency
- USD PKR PREDICTION
- USD UAH PREDICTION
- BTC PREDICTION. BTC cryptocurrency
- USD CNY PREDICTION
- USD ILS PREDICTION
- GBP EUR PREDICTION
- INR RUB PREDICTION
- DOGE PREDICTION. DOGE cryptocurrency
2025-07-27 14:13