Gold’s Dance with FOMC: A Range-Bound Tango with a Twist 🎶💰

by

Oh, what a generous gesture gold made last week! 🤗 It flirted with the $3438 HTF resistance, only to be met with the cold shoulder of sellers, leading to a rather dramatic bearish retreat. 🌪️

And there we stood, watching as the weekly closing of gold dipped below the majestic $3357, hinting at a possible retest of this level and more bearish pressure. But let’s not get too gloomy just yet; the FOMC is around the corner, and anything can happen in the financial circus. 🎪

  • Gold, oh gold, you remain tantalizingly range-bound as we await the FOMC. After your brief tryst with the $3438 resistance, you took a nosedive, but fear not, for the bias is neutral. A retest and potential downward pressure loom, but who knows what the FOMC might bring? 🤷‍♂️
  • The mixed bag of U.S. data has been a real comedy show. Increased unemployment and a disappointing NFP report gave you a boost, but positive GDP and jobs data bolstered the USD. It’s like a game of musical chairs, and no one knows who will be left standing. 🎶
  • For those keen on trading, the $3360–3373 (1h OB and FVG) is your resistance, while the $3308–3283 (4h OB, FVG, swing low) is your support. If you manage to breach above $3440, you might just find yourself in the spotlight again. 🌟
  • Strategically speaking, if you hold above the critical support zones, the longer-term outlook still leans bullish. Short-term traders, however, might find some juicy selling opportunities. 📉📈

Table of Contents

With the FOMC week upon us, the mood in the gold market is decidedly neutral. Everyone is on tenterhooks, waiting for the Fed to make its grand announcement. So, let’s dive into the key pivot levels for gold buying and selling in this XAUUSD weekly forecast from July 28th to May 4th, 2025. 🤔

Key economic events of this week

A plethora of significant U.S. economic reports are set to hit the stage this week, each with the potential to send ripples through the XAUUSD market. 🌊

Tuesday, July 29 – JOLTS Job Openings

The labor market seems to be cooling off, with job openings dropping to 7.49 million from an expected 7.77 million. This could give gold a little boost as the USD takes a hit and the chances of a dovish Fed increase. 🌈

Wednesday, July 30 – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change & Advance GDP q/q

The ADP jobs report surprised with strong private hiring (82K vs. -33K predicted), which could put pressure on gold and strengthen the USD. However, the GDP’s unexpected 2.4% growth (vs. -0.5%) is a silver lining for gold, as it reduces the need for rate cuts. 💰

Wednesday, July 30 – Federal Funds Rate & FOMC Statement

The Fed did the expected and kept interest rates at 4.50%. If the statement hints at a prolonged high-rate environment, the USD might strengthen, putting pressure on our golden friend. 🤝

Thursday, July 31 – FOMC Press Conference, Core PCE, Employment Cost Index, Unemployment Claims

Jay Powell’s hawkish tone during the press conference could spell trouble for gold. The Core PCE’s 0.3% increase (vs. 0.2%) stoked inflation fears, adding to gold’s woes. On the bright side, the slightly lower Employment Cost Index (0.8% vs. 0.9%) and higher unemployment claims (222K vs. 217K) offer some relief. 🙏

Friday, August 1 – Average Hourly Earnings, NFP, Unemployment Rate, ISM Manufacturing PMI

Wages surpassed expectations by 0.3% (vs. 0.2%), which is a double-edged sword for gold and inflation. The NFP’s underwhelming performance (108K vs. 147K) and the rise in the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4.2% suggest a softening labor market, which could be a boon for gold. If the ISM Manufacturing PMI reports poor results, concerns about a recession might drive gold prices up. 🚀

Gold HTF Overview

On the monthly timeframe chart, gold has tested the $3438 level thrice and failed to break through. The next major liquidity level is still at the all-time high of $3500. If the current monthly candle closes green in the next three days, we might witness a new all-time high (ATH) for gold, followed by a potential bearish move. 📈📉

Gold Forecast for July 28th to May 4th, 2025

Similar to the previous XAUUSD weekly forecast, gold has strong levels at the 4h OB, FVG, and the swing low. A strong buying move can be expected from these levels, specifically between $3308-3283. 📊

The closest selling area for gold is the 1h OB and FVG at $3360-3373. If this area fails to hold and the price flips above it, we could see a retest of $3440 next. 🛠️

Trading Strategies & Investment Recommendation

To wrap it up, gold offers both buying and selling opportunities this week. Lower time frames suggest selling, while higher time frames still favor a buy position. 🔄

Resistance Levels

  • $3360-3373 – 1h OB and FVG

Support Levels

  • $3308-3383 – 4h swing low, OB and FVG

Read More

2025-07-28 16:37