Lo! Behold the intrepid Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, who hath proclaimed that crypto-style perpetual futures shall slay the ancient temples of traditional stock exchanges. With a flourish of his quill, he declares that equity price discovery shall migrate to 24/7 perp markets, where the digital serpents of cryptocurrency coil around the necks of weary traders. 🐍📈
His prophecy arrives as U.S. and Asian exchanges, like CBOE and SGX, prepare to unveil their own perpetual products by 2025. Hayes, ever the prophet of disruption, frames this as an “adapt or die” moment for TradFi, warning that if these old guard exchanges fail to mimic crypto’s perp model, they shall wither into irrelevance, like a moth to the flame of innovation. 🔥
Perps Go Mainstream as Crypto and TradFi Converge
In his latest essay, the crypto trader, a veritable bard of the blockchain, revisits how BitMEX’s invention of the perpetual swap-a futures-like product with no expiry-reshaped the crypto realm. With a single “delta one” contract, liquidity was concentrated, while high leverage danced like a devil on a tightrope. 🕷️💸
He argues that perps, paired with socialized loss systems and insurance funds, have solved two eternal woes of retail traders: the desire for massive leverage and deep liquidity, sans the legal risk of owing more than their initial margin. A miracle, nay, a divine gift! 🙏
This design, according to Hayes, is now seeping into equities. He cites Hyperliquid’s HIP-3, a permissionless protocol, which allowed a firm called XYZ to launch a Nasdaq 100 equity perp, trading over $100 million daily. A spectacle fit for the grandest of theaters! 🎭
Hayes predicts equity perps will be “the hottest product of 2026,” with centralized and decentralized platforms racing to list them. A frenzy! A madness! A digital delirium! 🤯
The former BitMEX CEO also notes shifts in the U.S. regulatory landscape. After years of hostility, following the FTX collapse and his own legal battles with the CFTC, the mood has turned again in 2025 under President Trump, whose crypto-friendly stance has opened the door to sandbox experiments. A new era of regulatory whimsy! 🕵️♂️
Why Hayes Thinks Perps Will Overtake the CME
Hayes’ central claim is that, by late this decade, the largest derivatives on U.S. benchmarks like the S&P 500 shall be perps traded on crypto exchanges, not futures on CME. The old guard, with their under-capitalized guarantee funds and legacy hours, cannot keep pace with the 24/7 information cycle. A relic, indeed! 🕰️
Perpetual swaps, he claims, have flipped the model by letting traders post less collateral while accessing meaningful exposure. A marvel! A revolution! A liberation from the chains of parking large sums with exchanges, which, let us not forget, have endured multiple hacks and failures. A cautionary tale! 🛡️
Hayes himself remains an active and controversial trader. Recent on-chain data revealed him offloading sizable positions in ETH, ENA, ETHFI, LDO, AAVE, and UNI after a steep market drop. A man of contradictions! Yet, the outlier in his recent bets is privacy coin ZEC, which he praised on X after it outperformed the altcoin market with triple-digit gains. A true believer, or merely a gambler? 🎰
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2025-11-28 13:03