Bitcoin Cycle: Still Alive? 😱

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So, the digital tulip bulbs are still attempting to adhere to a schedule, are they? It appears Glassnode, those diligent accountants of the internet, suggest Bitcoin’s price gyrations might, *just might*, be following its historical four-year halving cycle. One would have thought all this institutional interest – a rather vulgar influx of respectability, frankly – would have shattered the pattern. But no. Apparently, even money launderers appreciate a bit of predictability.

“From a cyclical perspective, Bitcoin’s price action also echoes prior patterns,” Glassnode observes with the understated enthusiasm one expects from a firm charting the fortunes of imaginary money. A thrilling revelation, truly. 🧐

Bitcoin shows signs of cool off

Glassnode insists the Bitcoin (BTC) cycle is further along than the market suspects. One suspects they merely wish to justify their subscription fees, but who am I to judge? The firm notes that long-term holders-those titans of patience who’ve held onto their bulbs for a mere 155 days-are now exhibiting profit-taking on a scale “comparable to past euphoric phases.” In other words, they’re cashing out before the whole edifice collapses. Sensible, if you ask me.

Demand, predictably, is showing “signs of fatigue.” The spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), those vehicles for respectable investors to participate in a bubble, have inexplicably experienced outflows of nearly a billion dollars. People are beginning to realize that perhaps one shouldn’t base one’s retirement fund on an algorithm. A shocking development for proponents, I’m sure.

Since reaching dizzying heights of $124,128 on August 14th (honestly, the sheer audacity!), Bitcoin has slumped to a comparatively modest $113,940. A mere 8.3% drop. Barely noticeable, really. 😇

This waning enthusiasm, naturally, has led traders to embrace more “risky bets on volatility.” One can only assume they’ve invested heavily in popcorn. Open interest in altcoins – those even *more* speculative digital trinkets – briefly touched $60 billion before retreating slightly. A touch, naturally.

If Bitcoin maintains its typical trajectory, Glassnode posits that the peak could arrive as early as October. In 2018 and 2022, the peaks appeared a mere two or three months after “where we currently stand.” Honestly, the level of precision is rather unsettling.

Rekt Capital, a name I hesitate to repeat, has also weighed in, suggesting an October summit if the 2020 pattern holds true. One shudders to think what Rekt Capital *actually* thinks.

Several executives say the four year cycle is over

Of course, there are dissenting voices. Some amongst the crypto cognoscenti believe the cycle is defunct – a quaint relic of a less sophisticated age. They argue that the increasing number of corporate treasuries accumulating Bitcoin (and the deluge of ETF money) will alter the dynamics. They are, of course, hoping to sell their own positions at a higher price. 🙄

Jason Williams, an author and investor, notes that the top 100 treasury companies hold nearly 1 million Bitcoin. A significant sum, undoubtedly, though one still questions the wisdom of tying a corporation’s fate to this…enterprise. Bitwise’s Matt Hougan boldly declared the cycle “dead” and predicts an “up year” in 2026. He blames it on the halving cycle losing its potency and interest rates becoming more favorable. A comforting narrative for those still clinging to hope.

Naturally, these pronouncements are delivered with the utmost seriousness. After all, this is *serious* business. 🍷

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2025-08-21 09:17