It was a week of great turmoil and change in the world of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, as the once fervent hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut and the newly minted budget bill of the great and powerful Trump began to wane, leaving investors in a state of cautious reflection. The inflows, which had surged like a mighty river, now trickled like a meek stream, down by a staggering 65%.
According to the wise sages at SoSoValue, the 12 spot Bitcoin ETFs, which had previously drawn in a princely sum of $2.22 billion, now saw a mere $769.6 million in the past week. A drop, one might say, as dramatic as the fall of the House of Romanov.
The week began with a modest inflow of $102.14 million on Monday, a day that seemed to promise much. However, Tuesday brought a storm of outflows, a staggering $342.25 million, as if the market had suddenly remembered the folly of its ways. Wednesday and Thursday, however, brought a glimmer of hope, with inflows of $407.78 million and $601.94 million respectively, the latter being the highest single-day inflow since the idyllic days of May. The markets, in their infinite wisdom, chose to remain closed on Friday, a day of national celebration and reflection.
Among the issuers, BlackRock’s IBIT, like a noble knight, led the charge with $336.8 million in weekly inflows. Fidelity’s FBTC, not to be outdone, followed with $248.4 million, and ARK 21Shares’ ARKB added a respectable $160 million to the tally.
Other funds, including Bitwise’s BITB, Invesco’s BTCO, Franklin Templeton’s EZBC, Valkyrie’s BRRR, and VanEck’s HODL, along with minor inflows into Grayscale’s new BTC funds, contributed an additional $109.2 million. However, this was partially offset by the net outflows of $84.9 million from Grayscale’s venerable GBTC, a fund that had once been the darling of the crypto world.
The sharp decline in inflows, one might say, was a result of the age-old practice of profit-taking, as Bitcoin approached its all-time high near $111,960. Investors, wise and cautious, locked in their gains ahead of the holiday weekend, a move that limited directional conviction and reduced short-term flows into crypto investment vehicles. It was as if the market had decided to take a breather, a moment of respite before the next great surge.
Broader macroeconomic developments, too, played their part in this grand drama. The June U.S. jobs report, which came in stronger than expected, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 147,000 versus the consensus estimates of 110,000, cast a shadow over the hopes for a July rate cut. Investors, ever the pragmatists, began to rebalance their exposure to assets such as Bitcoin, a move that was as predictable as the changing of the seasons.
Simultaneously, the passage of Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill, a comprehensive tax and spending package that cleared the Senate on July 1, had a profound impact on market sentiment. Although the bill included fiscal reforms, it failed to include the crypto-related tax provisions that had been proposed by pro-crypto lawmakers, including favorable treatment for staking and mining activities. This disappointment, one might say, was like a cold wind that swept through the crypto industry, chilling the hopes of many who had sought regulatory clarity and tax relief.
Following the Senate vote, Bitcoin, like a wounded lion, briefly dropped to $105,000 on July 2. However, the asset, ever resilient, swiftly rebounded above $110,000 a day later, after President Trump announced a new trade deal with a key ASEAN partner, a move that restored some investor confidence. It was as if the market had found a new lease on life, a second wind in the midst of the storm.
As of press time, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $109,000, showing little change on the day and hovering just 2.5% below its all-time high. Despite the lingering concerns over U.S. tariffs, analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s medium-term outlook, a beacon of hope in a world of uncertainty.
Standard Chartered, in a moment of boldness, recently reaffirmed its Q3 target of $135,000 for Bitcoin and reiterated its year-end forecast of $200,000, citing continued institutional demand and constrained exchange supply. Other analysts, including those at Bernstein and BitMEX’s Arthur Hayes, have set even more aggressive targets between $200,000 and $250,000 by year-end, contingent on ETF inflows and global liquidity conditions. It was as if the market, in its infinite wisdom, was preparing for a grand finale, a final act that would leave all in awe.
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2025-07-07 10:13