Bitcoin & FOMC: Will It Rally or Tumble? 🤑💔

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So, the U.S. Federal Reserve decided to have their little tea party on the 9th of December, and everyone’s like, “Ooh, rate cut incoming!” 🍵✨ The CME Group’s Fed Watch tool (fancy, right?) says traders are betting on a 25 bps cut, with a tiny chance of a 50 bps surprise. Spoiler alert: it’s not as exciting as a Black Friday sale. 🛍️

Apparently, these rate cuts are supposed to make the economy go “yay!” by making borrowing cheaper. The Fed’s been on this kick since September and October, but let’s be real-has it actually worked? 🤔

Enter Ardi, the futures trader who’s like the Cassandra of crypto, posting on X (formerly Twitter, because why not?) that a rate cut might not be Bitcoin’s fairy godmother after all. 🧚‍♀️✨ Remember September and October? 25 bps cuts, followed by Bitcoin taking an 8% and 12% nosedive. Ouch. 😬

Has the FOMC announcement been priced in? 🤷‍♀️

Here’s the tea: markets love to front-run expectations. By the time the Fed actually speaks, the rally’s already had its moment. Like showing up to a party after the cake’s been eaten. 🍰🙅‍♀️

Case in point: Bitcoin’s Tuesday rally, where it jumped 5.7% in 12 hours to hit $94k. But, as the 4-hour chart shows (yes, we’re looking at charts now), it didn’t break past the supply zone (red box, very dramatic) that’s been there since mid-November. 🖼️🔴

The OBV (On-Balance Volume, for the uninitiated) has been creeping up in December, but is it enough to push prices higher? Who knows? 🤷‍♀️ Maybe Bitcoin’s just flexing its biceps. 💪

The H4 chart (yes, another chart) looks bullish, with a bullish structure break (orange, because why not add more colors?) on Tuesday. If buyers keep up the pressure, $94k resistance might just be a speed bump. 🚗💨 But, as history shows, these things take time. ⏳

On the 1-hour chart (yes, we’re still charting), bullish pressure is holding strong, with an imbalance (white box, very chic) down to $90.6k. But let’s not get too excited-it’s crypto, after all. 🎢

Explaining the bullish Bitcoin scenario 🌈🚀

The bullish reaction seems to be taking its sweet time, probably waiting for some macroeconomic drama. If Bitcoin breaks $96k and retests $94k-$95k as support, it’s buying time. But don’t hold your breath. 🛒🙄

Bitcoin traders, stay neutral or lean bearish 😢👻

Let’s be real, the bearish scenario is the more likely outcome. The retest of the H1 imbalance around $92.5k was underwhelming, so a dip to $90.6k (the gap’s low) is probably on the cards. And if it drops below $90.6k or $89.9k, it’s retracement city. 🏙️💔

The dip could go as low as $88k or even $84k before it bounces back. Traders, stay zen and don’t FOMO into anything. 🧘‍♀️✋

Final Thoughts (because we need closure)

  • Past rate cuts didn’t exactly send Bitcoin to the moon, thanks to the long-term downtrend. 🚀🚫
  • So, stay bearish until $96k resistance is breached. Or don’t. It’s your money. 💸🤷‍♀️

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2025-12-11 00:27