Bitcoin Miners in Tears: Hash Rate Plummets, But Is the Bottom Near? 😢💰

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Ah, the fickle dance of Bitcoin’s hash rate! 🕺 Like a Chekhovian protagonist, it has fallen 4% in the last 30 days-the sharpest decline in nearly two years. How tragic, yet how predictable.

Meanwhile, miners are wringing their hands as volatility spikes and prices tumble. Profits? Gone with the wind, like a misplaced ruble in a Moscow tavern. Yet, VanEck, the wise old observer, suggests this capitulation might signal a bottom. 🌱 Or perhaps it’s just the universe laughing at our folly.

China Pulls the Plug, Miners Weep, and Bitcoin Shudders

VanEck’s December 2025 report-a document as dry as a Russian winter-notes this 4% dip is the largest since April 2024. Bitcoin’s price slid 9%, and volatility soared above 45%. 🌪️ Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush, those stoic analysts, remark, “We typically expect the rate to drop during large pullbacks in Bitcoin price.” How profound. Almost as profound as a peasant’s lament in a Chekhov play.

China, ever the drama queen, shut down 400,000 machines in Xinjiang, slashing 1.3 GW of capacity. 🏭 The result? A 100 exahashes per second drop in computing power. “AI demand is to blame,” the analysts sigh. Or perhaps it’s just the universe’s way of reminding us who’s boss.

“This is likely due to shifting the power generation to AI demand and may result in the removal of up to 10% of Bitcoin network hashing power,” they noted, as if reading from a telegram sent by a disgruntled miner.

Miner economics, once robust, now resemble a Chekhovian estate on the brink of ruin. The breakeven electricity price for a 2022-era Bitmain S19 XP miner fell from $0.12 to $0.077-a 36% drop. 🤑 Yet, some miners persist, clinging to their belief in Bitcoin’s future like a noble fool in a tragic farce.

“While profitability for miners has been poor recently, many entities continue to mine despite periods of poor economics because they believe in Bitcoin’s future. To support the long-term hash rate, we believe up to 13 nations are mining with central government backing,” Sigel and Bush added, their tone as hopeful as a Chekhov protagonist’s doomed dream.

Historical Data Whispers of a Bullish Turn

Despite the gloom, VanEck hints at a “bullish contrarian signal.” 🌈 Since 2014, Bitcoin’s forward returns have been stronger when the hash rate contracts. The 90-day forward BTC returns were positive 65% of the time during such periods, compared to 54% when the hash rate rose.

The 180-day forward returns? Slightly higher when the hash rate fell-20.5% vs. 20.2%. 🧮 The pattern holds, like a Chekhovian motif, reminding us that history repeats itself, first as tragedy, then as farce.

“Across the 346 days since 2014, when the 90-day hash rate growth was negative, 180-day forward BTC returns were positive 77% of the time, with an average return of +72%. Outside of those days, returns were positive ~61% of the time and averaged +48%,” the analysts revealed, their tone as dry as a Moscow summer.

Technical Patterns: A Bottom or Just Another Act?

Market watchers, those eternal optimists, point to a 3-day bullish divergence-a pattern that marked bottoms in the past. 🌟 Ted Pillows, ever the sage, declared, “BTC 3D bullish divergence is now confirmed. When this happened the last 2 times, Bitcoin formed a bottom.”

The 3-day bullish divergence has locked in.

In this cycle, that usually meant the bottom is in. #Bitcoin

– Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) December 22, 2025

Will Bitcoin rise again? Only time will tell. For now, it trades at $88,066, down 1.01% in 24 hours. 📉 Like a Chekhovian hero, it stands at the precipice, uncertain of its fate, yet somehow, absurdly, hopeful.

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2025-12-23 08:57