Bitcoin Slump to $86K: Time for the “Max Pain” Discount Sale! 🎉

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Key takeaways:

  • A Bitwise analyst predicts the “max pain” zone for Bitcoin to be between $84,000 and $73,000. Oh joy. 😬

  • The cost-basis levels of BlackRock’s IBIT and Strategy’s BTC treasury could heavily affect liquidity, like a game of Monopoly, but with real money. 💸

The Worst-Case Scenario for BTC: A “Fire-Sale” Price Drop 🎁🔥

André Dragosch, the European head of research at Bitwise, reckons Bitcoin’s “max pain” zone is lurking somewhere between BlackRock’s IBIT at $84,000 and MicroStrategy’s “could’ve been worse” $73,000. What a bargain, huh?

Dragosch argues that Bitcoin’s final cycle bottom is probably somewhere in these murky depths, which he lovingly calls “fire-sale” prices. Think of it like a full market reset but without the fun. 💔

BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), IBIT, shows us just how much pain we’re talking. Their cost basis reflects the average price at which they bought their BTC. When the price drops toward this threshold, ETF holders start getting a little twitchy, wondering if it’s time to bail out or just cry softly in their offices. 🙄

We’re already seeing the pain. IBIT just posted its worst single-day outflows of $523 million on Tuesday. A whopping $3.3 billion has flown out of ETFs over the last month, or about 3.5% of their total assets under management. Ouch. 📉

And then there’s Strategy. They’re looking a bit more fragile these days, like a cheap plastic chair at a rock concert. Their net asset value (NAV) recently fell below 1, which basically means the market values their stock less than the Bitcoin they hold. Historically, that’s a signal that liquidity’s tightening up and people are running scared. If the price hits $73,000, expect the market sentiment to hit a new low. 🎭

Macroeconomic Risk Builds as the Fed Plays “Who Knows What’s Next?”

Meanwhile, back at the Federal Reserve, things are looking as uncertain as a cat at a dog show. CryptoQuant points out that the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is extra mysterious this year, thanks to a pesky government shutdown that delayed labor data. The Fed now has about as much clarity as a foggy night in London. 🧐

As of Nov. 20, the chance of a rate cut is sitting at a mere 41.8%. Minutes from the committee reveal a very divided bunch, torn between 3% inflation and the risks of cutting rates too soon. Get ready for the real drama. 😬

If the Fed decides to stay put, expect liquidity to stay locked tighter than your grandma’s cookie jar, which, let’s be honest, is pretty much what led to Bitcoin’s November crash. 💥

But here’s the kicker: stablecoin reserves on exchanges are at a record $72 billion. This is basically the crypto version of waiting for the storm to pass before you head out for a barbecue. Analysts think Bitcoin will hover between $60,000 and $80,000 into the year-end as liquidity stays frozen like the weather in Antarctica. 🥶

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2025-11-20 21:28