Bitcoin’s Glum November May Spark a Jolly December 🎭💰

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In a manner most befitting a chap who’s just discovered his butler has been secretly trading crypto, Coinbase Institutional released its monthly outlook report on Wednesday. The gist? Bitcoin’s November performance was about as cheerful as a wet weekend in Bognor Regis, but December might just turn things around-provided, of course, the Fed stops behaving like a miserly uncle at Christmas.

The Rundown (Or: Why Bitcoin Needs a Strong Drink)

  • Bitcoin stumbled through November like a man who’d bet his last quid on a three-legged racehorse, falling more than three standard deviations below its 90-day average. Meanwhile, U.S. equities merely tripped over a shoelace.
  • December could be Bitcoin’s redemption arc-if the Fed stops tightening the purse strings and starts sprinkling rate cuts like confetti at a particularly reckless wedding.
  • “I’m bearish on the Fed,” declared James Lavish, a man whose surname suggests he either owns a yacht or is very good at pretending to. “Bitcoin, dear friends, is the lifeboat when the dollar decides to imitate the Titanic.”

The report, penned with all the gravitas of a butler announcing dinner is served, noted that the Fed’s return to the bond market might just mean the great cash drain is over. This, they claim, is usually good news for risk-on assets-like cryptocurrencies, or investing in a friend’s dubious “can’t-lose” ostrich farm.

Bitcoin, it seems, couldn’t keep up with U.S. equities in November, falling harder than a debutante after her third glass of champagne. The S&P 500, by comparison, merely wobbled like a man who’d forgotten where he left his monocle.

The report also highlighted a few pesky challenges: spot ETF flows went negative (a bit like a soufflĂŠ collapsing mid-dinner party), stablecoin supply shrank faster than a wool jumper in hot water, and long-term Bitcoin holders were selling like a chap desperate to offload a cursed pocket watch.

The K-Shaped Recovery: Or, How AI Might Steal Your Job (But Not Your Bitcoin)

The report touched on the “K-shaped” recovery-a scenario where AI boosts corporate profits while leaving personal incomes looking as stable as a Jenga tower in an earthquake. Fortunately, crypto markets seem blissfully indifferent, much like a cat watching its owner attempt yoga.

Coinbase suggested that all that sidelined cash-currently sitting in money-market accounts like guests too polite to leave a dull party-might eventually slosh into Bitcoin once the Fed stops being such a wet blanket.

James Lavish: The Man, The Myth, The Crypto Enthusiast

James Lavish, a former hedge-fund manager (and current connoisseur of dramatic pronouncements), took to X to declare that the Fed has added $8.8 trillion in liquidity over 16 years while removing a mere $3.2 trillion-before, as he put it, “calling ‘uncle’ for the second time.”

“When people ask why I’m bullish on Bitcoin,” Lavish mused, “it’s simple. I’m bearish on the Fed and their knack for turning the dollar into Monopoly money. Bitcoin? That’s the escape hatch.”

In the last 16 years, the Fed has added a total of $8.8 trillion of liquidity to markets and removed a total of just $3.2 trillion before calling uncle for the second time. So when people ask why I am so bullish on Bitcoin, it is simple. I am bearish on the Fed and what they…

– James Lavish (@jameslavish) December 2, 2025

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis revealed the Fed has been injecting liquidity like a bartender topping up drinks at a particularly thirsty convention-marking the second-largest spike since the COVID-19 pandemic. Cheers to that, old sport. 🍸

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2025-12-04 03:21