Cardano’s $540M Whale Sell-Off: Did Whales Kill the Rally?

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<a href="https://cnyeur.com/ada-usd/">Cardano</a>’s Bullish Divergence Fired and Failed — $540 Million in Whale Selling To Blame?

Cardano’s price recently showed a classic sign of a potential upward trend, jumping 24% before quickly falling back down. While the price rose, data shows large investors (whales) sold off over $540 million worth of Cardano. Interestingly, at the same time, smaller investors were actively buying the dip, according to the Money Flow Index.

Here’s what happened, and what it means next.

Daily RSI Divergence Fired & MFI Confirmed the Move

From December 31, 2025, to February 24, 2026, Cardano’s price chart showed a promising signal. While the price itself reached a new low, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) – which measures how quickly prices are changing – actually increased. This combination suggests a potential price increase.

If the price of an asset falls to a new low, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) simultaneously rises, it suggests that the downward trend is losing strength, even though the price is still decreasing.

As an analyst, I observed a clear signal on February 25th when Cardano (ADA) experienced a significant price increase of almost 24%, momentarily reaching $0.31. However, the price action quickly reversed, creating a candlestick pattern with a long upper wick. This suggests strong selling pressure emerged as the price hit its peak, indicating potential resistance at that level.

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What’s particularly noteworthy is that the Money Flow Index confirmed this pattern. The MFI is a tool that gauges how strongly buyers and sellers are influencing price movements, using both price and trading volume on a scale of 0 to 100. It differs from indicators like the RSI, which only look at price changes. By including volume, the MFI provides a clearer picture of actual money entering or leaving an investment.

From February 24th to 28th, both the price and the Money Flow Index (MFI) increased, indicating strong buying pressure. The fact that there wasn’t a bearish divergence on the MFI suggests that price drops were met with genuine buying volume, rather than just the price rising with limited trading activity. This indicates someone was actively purchasing when the price dipped, effectively preventing further declines.

Okay, so I was watching ADA closely. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) showed a bullish divergence, and the Money Flow Index (MFI) seemed to confirm people were actually buying. It looked promising, and the price *did* jump 24%! But honestly, I was pretty surprised when, just days after hitting a peak on February 25th, the price dropped 17%. It got me thinking – if the technical indicators were right and there was genuine buying pressure, what caused that rally to fail?

Over 2 Billion ADA Distributed in 3 Days: The Whales Were the Sellers

As an analyst, I’ve been looking at the recent price action, and the answer seems to be right on the blockchain. Our data at Santiment shows a really interesting pattern: between February 24th and 27th, all the major whale groups – those holding significant amounts of crypto – reduced their holdings at the same time. This synchronized selling across large holders is a key observation.

Cardano (ADA) holders sold off a large amount of their tokens between February 24th and 25th, representing the biggest single sell-off of ADA to date. Approximately 1.02 billion ADA tokens were sold, reducing the total supply held from 2.90 billion to 1.88 billion.

Between February 24th and 27th, a group holding between 100 million and 1 billion ADA tokens initially bought some of the tokens being sold. However, they then sharply reduced their holdings, decreasing their total from 3.47 billion to 2.61 billion ADA – a loss of about 860 million tokens.

Looking at the Cardano data, I’ve noticed some significant movement among the bigger holders. Those with between 10 and 100 million ADA sold off around 220 million tokens, bringing their total holdings down from 13.9 billion to 13.68 billion. Even the smaller whales – those holding between 1 and 10 million ADA – also reduced their positions, selling about 50 million tokens and decreasing their holdings from 5.69 billion to 5.64 billion. It seems like a lot of larger investors are taking some profits or rebalancing their portfolios.

Over three days, around 2.15 billion ADA tokens were distributed to four groups. Considering the average price of $0.27 at that time, this represents about $540 million worth of tokens being sold – a significant amount hitting the market while many individual investors were buying.

The MFI data is significant because it shows real buying activity. Combined with whale data, we can see where the recent selling pressure originated. While smaller investors were consistently buying, a large amount of selling – $540 million over three days – was too much for that demand to handle.

Derivatives Data Adds Weight To ADA Breakdown

The derivatives market supports this trend. Cardano’s futures open interest dropped significantly from $1.95 billion in September to under $450 million by mid-February – one of the lowest points of the year. This suggests that most retail investors using leverage had already sold their positions before the price started to fall.

The recent purchases likely happened because of a temporary price drop, with buyers spotting a potential reversal based on technical indicators. However, this buying wasn’t enough to offset large-scale selling by major holders.

Cardano Price Action: Lower Lows Persist, Whale Re-Entry Becomes the Key Signal

As of March 2nd, ADA’s price is still below where it was in late December, currently trading at $0.27. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing increasing lows compared to that same period. This suggests that the possibility of a bullish divergence – a potential price reversal – hasn’t disappeared, even though it didn’t materialize in late February. A new low in price could re-activate this potential reversal signal.

The price of $0.31 is a key level to watch. The price previously struggled to move above this point on February 25th. If the price closes a day above $0.31, it could signal the end of the recent downward trend and potentially lead to a rise towards $0.37.

If the value falls to $0.26, it would signal a downward trend. Further declines below $0.26, particularly to $0.23 or $0.21, would be significant concerns.

If $0.21 fails, deeper Fibonacci extensions at $0.18 (0.618) and $0.15 (0.786) come into play.

What will really determine Cardano’s next price movement isn’t a specific price point, but whether large investors – known as ‘whales’ – begin buying the cryptocurrency again. According to data from Santiment as of March 2nd, these major holders haven’t yet started buying in significant amounts.

If Cardano (ADA) drops to $0.21 or below, and large investors (whales) start buying again – like they did previously – it could create a more promising opportunity than we saw in February. When these large investors begin purchasing, it may signal that the price has reached a temporary low.

For Cardano to truly rally, we need to see large investors supporting the upward trend, not opposing it. Without that support, the price could continue to fall.

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2026-03-02 23:47