Crypto Bear Market? Let’s Save the Drama for Your Wallet

by

A shiny new survey by Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode drops a plot twist: about one-quarter of both institutional and non-institutional investors think the crypto market is in a bear mood, and yes, the crowd isn’t cheering. Grab your popcorn, folks-this is a financial farce with high stakes and low gravity.

Meanwhile, despite the moaning chorus, investors swear Bitcoin (BTC) is undervalued. The insights read like a psychology textbook written by a stand-up comic: mixed macro signals, volatility, and a hair-trigger market that can’t decide whether to boo or buy.

Investors Classify the Crypto Market as Bearish (And No, It’s Not a Grizzly with a Microphone)

The findings come from a survey of 148 respondents conducted between December 10, 2025, and January 12, 2026, including 75 institutional and 73 non-institutional investors. About 26% of institutional respondents and 21% of non-institutional respondents say the crypto market is in a bear phase-and yes, the crowd goes “aww, shucks.”

This is a dramatic leap from the previous survey, where only 2% of institutional and 7% of non-institutional respondents expressed this view. It’s the kind of jump you’d expect if a bear sneezed and the Nasdaq caught a cold.

These perceptions align with signals from the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, which has stayed below zero since October, suggesting Bitcoin is currently in a bear mood that even a cub could sense-and cubs are notoriously bad at timing the market.

Furthermore, Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, told BeInCrypto that Bitcoin appears to be entering the early stages of a bear market, with weakening demand as the main culprit behind this assessment.

“Basically every on-chain metric or market metric confirms that we are in a bear market in the early stages,” he stated in a BeInCrypto podcast episode.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5sR6kbbSMW8[/embed>

Bitcoin Undervaluation Narrative Strengthens as Investors Hold Firm (And maybe wear capes)

Despite the gloom in the bullpen, the survey data reveal a stubborn disconnect between short-term mood swings and long-term conviction. After the October 2025 deleveraging event, bear-market perceptions rose, but investor actions told a different story-like a chorus that’s optimistic even when the lead singer hits a sour note.

As detailed in the Coinbase and Glassnode report, 62% of institutions and 70% of non-institutional investors have either held or expanded their crypto allocations since October 2025.

Additionally, 49% of institutional respondents and 48% of non-institutional respondents said that a short-term price drop of more than 10% wouldn’t trigger any changes to their current allocations, because they’re hell-bent on continuing to hold. It’s the investment equivalent of “We’re sticking with the plan.”

Meanwhile, 31% of institutional investors and 37% of non-institutional investors indicated they would buy the dip under such conditions. This confidence is echoed by valuation views: 70% of institutions and 60% of non-institutional investors say Bitcoin is undervalued.

This suggests that investors acknowledge bearish conditions, but their actions point to long-term faith rather than panic selling. The market looks like a cautious productivity party-everyone’s tentatively clustering around the value, passively agglomerating in corners, and waiting for direction to show its hand.

Coinbase and Glassnode Share Q1 2026 Crypto Market Outlook

The respondents aren’t alone in staying optimistic. David Duong, CFA, Global Head of Research at Coinbase Institutional, along with an analyst from Glassnode, note that their view on the crypto market in Q1 2026 remains constructive-and yes, that’s their professional way of saying “we still think crypto has legs, even if the fur is flying.”

“Our outlook on crypto markets is constructive to start the new year, even though the clouds from last yearʼs leverage-fueled liquidations have not cleared entirely,” they wrote.

They outlined several factors that support their outlook:

  • Supportive inflation trends: Inflation held steady at 2.7% in the latest December CPI reading, easing concerns about tariff-induced doom-yet still providing a drumbeat for cautious optimism.
  • Resilient economic growth: As of January 14, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projected real GDP growth of 5.3% for Q4 2025-enough to keep the show on the road, even if the audience is grumbling.
  • Potential monetary policy tailwinds: The analysts suggested that the Federal Reserve will likely deliver 2 interest-rate cuts totaling 50 basis points, as currently priced into Fed funds futures. Such easing could lend support to risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

They also added that the outlook could brighten with major policy progress in the US, particularly around the CLARITY Act. That kind of progress could encourage broader participation in the crypto market and help strengthen overall investor sentiment.

“What would make us more concerned: A meaningful uptick in inflation, a spike in energy prices, or a significant flare up of geopolitical tensions could warrant a more cautious approach to risk assets,” the report read.

What the Current Crypto Market Setup Could Mean for Investors

Amid this backdrop, some crypto market participants view the landscape as an opportunity rather than a capitulation. Data from Santiment shows that the 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratios for several large-cap cryptocurrencies are negative.

According to Santiment, assets like Chainlink, Cardano, Ethereum, and XRP currently appear undervalued based on this metric, while Bitcoin is considered mildly undervalued. Lower 30-day MVRV readings typically suggest lower risk for adding or opening positions.

“A coin having a negative percentage means average traders you’re competing with are down money, and there is an opportunity to enter while profits are below the normal ‘zero-sum game’ level. The more negative, the more safe it is for you to buy,” the post read.

Analyst CyrilXBT also weighed in on market sentiment. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in “fear,” but has not yet toppled into panic. CyrilXBT offered a relaxed prophecy:

“That’s usually where boredom and frustration peak, not where markets break. Historically, this is where positioning happens quietly before direction shows itself.”

All told, the survey results and supporting market data point to a nuanced market phase rather than outright capitulation. While more investors identify current conditions as bearish, sustained allocations and widespread undervaluation views suggest long-term conviction remains intact. The show goes on, even if some folks can’t find the exit sign.

Nonetheless, the market remains notably volatile, with macroeconomic headwinds continuing to exert substantial influence, reminding everyone to keep a sense of humor-and a careful wallet.

Read More

2026-01-26 16:21