Crypto’s Late-Cycle Panic: Is It Over or Just Begun? 💸

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Y’all be aware, the post-GFC “everything bubble” is finally popping, much to the dismay of those who thought it would last forever. Michael Howell, a man with more liquidity charts than a bank vault, says crypto ain’t in the starter’s gate-it’s sittin’ on the backstretch, wrasslin’ with a debt-refinancing bull. 🐂

Now, Howell’s definition of liquidity is like a magician’s trick: “It’s the flow of money through global financial markets,” he says, “not the deposits in your grandma’s savings account.” And by golly, that flow’s gone from $100 trillion to $200 trillion in a decade and a half. A doubling, mind you, like a frog in a sock. 🐸

Howell Flags Liquidity Peak

What’s the big deal? The momentum, of course! Howell’s 65-month cycle is like a pendulum swing-70% of transactions are refinancing, not new investments. It’s like makin’ payments on a mortgage while still tryin’ to buy a new house. 🏠

And here’s the kicker: old debt is financin’ new liquidity. It’s like borrowin’ from your cousin to pay your rent, then expectin’ your cousin to pay your cousin’s rent. 🤯

His debt-to-liquidity ratio? A seesaw that’s always tryin’ to balance. When it’s low, bubbles pop; when it’s high, chaos ensues. Right now, we’re “transitionin’ out of the everything bubble,” which is like sayin’ the party’s over and the cleanup’s a mess. 🎉

Short-term? Howell’s eyein’ the Fed, the Treasury, and repo markets like a hound on a trail. SOFR’s actin’ up, and repo spreads are blowin’ out like a fireworks show gone wrong. 🌟

Inside his four liquidity regimes, the US is in “speculation,” Europe in “late calm.” It’s like a poker game where the dealer’s holdin’ all the aces. 🃏

LIVE NOW – The Real Crypto Cycle: What Happens When Global Liquidity Peaks

Global liquidity veteran Michael Howell (@crossbordercap) joins to map out the “master variable” driving asset price:

A 65-month global liquidity and debt-refinancing cycle that underpins booms, busts,…

– Bankless (@Bankless) November 24, 2025

The Impact On The Crypto Market

Crypto’s a chameleon, actin’ like a tech stock and a commodity. Bitcoin? “About 40-45% of the drivers… are global liquidity factors,” he says. Which is like sayin’ a cake’s mostly flour-true, but where’s the frosting? 🍰

The four-year halving cycle? Howell’s not buyin’ it. “I don’t see no four-year cycle,” he says. “Just a 65-month one.” It’s like sayin’ a horse’s gait is 65 months instead of four years. 🐴

The structural backdrop? Monetary inflation’s here to stay, and Howell’s sayin’ Bitcoin and gold are the only hedges. Which is like sayin’ a life raft’s the only thing keepin’ you afloat in a hurricane. 🌩️

Tactically? He’s cautious, like a man walkin’ on a tightrope with a blindfold. “We’re not bearish yet, but we’re not bullish either,” he says. It’s like watchin’ a storm brew and sayin’, “Well, it’s not yet a hurricane.” ☁️

At press time, crypto’s market cap was $2.96 trillion. Which, in Twain’s words, is “a tidy sum… if you’re countin’ in gold doubloons.” 🏴‍☠️

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2025-11-26 07:23