Fed Rate Cuts: A June Affair? Wilde Economists Weigh In!

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Ah, the Federal Reserve, that most punctual of fashionably late attendees to economic parties, may yet find itself sipping tea with the June committee rather than the March one. Wells Fargo economists, armed with data sharper than a wit at a drawing room soirée, insist the Fed’s scalpel will remain sheathed until spring, thanks to robust labor figures and inflation’s newfound restraint.

The job market, that most fickle of paramours, has found favor in healthcare and social services, while the rest of the economy treads water like a Victorian lady in a corset. January’s payrolls surged by 130,000-a number so delightfully round it could have been plucked from a novel-while unemployment dipped to 4.3%, a figure so precise it might as well be a haiku.

“The recent governmental hiccup, that delightful pause in the nation’s pulse, granted us the rare spectacle of jobs and inflation data clinking glasses within 48 hours. A veritable masquerade of progress! The job market, though still moonlighting as a one-man show for healthcare, has regained its footing. Meanwhile, inflation, that pesky little guest at the dinner party, has finally remembered to leave the hors d’oeuvres at home, cooling to a five-year low.”

Core CPI, that oft-maligned cousin of headline inflation, has also curtsied politely to 2.5%, its most demure self since the days of yore. Wells Fargo, ever the pragmatist, insists this tango of stable jobs and tame prices renders March’s rate-cut hopes as fleeting as a duchess’s patience at a summer garden party-though June remains a tantalizing possibility.

“We have long opined that the window for further rate reductions is closing with the grace of a Victorian novel’s final page, leaving readers-ahem, investors-on the edge of their seats. Should hiring diversify beyond its current obsession with white coats and stethoscopes, the Fed’s scissors would snip that window shut. But alas, tepid hiring outside healthcare suggests the curtains remain slightly ajar… for now.”

Wage growth, that most sedate of trends, has slowed to 3.4% annually, a pace even a tortoise might blush at. Retail sales, meanwhile, stalled in December, a curious choice for a holiday season when even the most devoted Scrooge would have loosened their purse strings by 3.6%. One must wonder: where did all that spending vanish? Perhaps into the pockets of economists, who thrive on such mysteries.

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2026-02-20 11:22