Markets
What to know:
- Gold’s surge past $5,000 an ounce now reads less like a one-off flare and more like a bureaucratic coup in the currency department, with investors treating the metal as a sturdy hedge against geopolitical squabbles, central-bank appetites, and a dollar that seems determined to take early retirement.
- Bitcoin is currently perched around $87,000, in a market that has all the conviction of a cat at a physics lecture, as on-chain data show elder hands selling into rallies, newer buyers absorbing losses, and a surplus of supply damping any heroic leap toward $100,000.
- Derivatives and prediction markets point toward continued consolidation for bitcoin and a stubbornly cheerful gold, aided by thin futures volumes, subdued leverage, and a conspicuously lackluster demand for high-beta crypto assets like ether.
Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:
Gold’s leap above $5,000 is starting to look less like a solitary flare and more like the universe deciding to rerun the economy with a new script, while bitcoin drifts sideways near $87,000 in the opening acts of Hong Kong trading, a low-conviction performance with more internal supply dynamics than a cookery show.
On-chain indicators suggest the divergence stems from market structure rather than sheer mood, like the plumbing deciding to behave for once.
In its latest report, CryptoQuant notes bitcoin holders have begun selling at a loss for the first time since October 2023, with older buyers exiting and newer ones stepping in, a pattern more suggestive of consolidation than a heroic ascent.
Glassnode says the market is being dragged down by supply, with rallies repeatedly encountering sellers near where recent buyers first jumped in.
Options and prediction markets reinforce the view: the market prices gold as persistently strong while tempering expectations for a near-term bitcoin revival.
Glassnode adds that price remains stuck below key short-term cost bases around $98,000, with a dense supply overhang above $100,000-meaning there are enough sellers at higher levels to cap rallies and make a sustained move above $100k a bit of a daydream in the near term.
Recent rallies have dragged out break-even sellers and loss-exiters from investors who bought during the 2025 highs, reinforcing overhead resistance and keeping upside fragile.
Market mechanics support the diagnosis: futures volumes are compressed, leverage is subdued, and recent moves have occurred in thin liquidity rather than amid expanding participation.
On Polymarket, traders are assigning higher odds to gold staying above $5,500 through mid-year, while increasingly betting that bitcoin will continue to consolidate before any significant upside.
For now, gold is absorbing macro stress, while bitcoin remains in digestion mode, working through internal supply rather than reacting to external catalysts.
Market Movement
BTC: Bitcoin hovers around $87,000, struggling to gain traction as overhead supply, sparse participation, and subdued leverage keep rallies vulnerable to another wave of distribution.
ETH: Ether is underperforming relative to bitcoin, with price action signalling weak demand, muted derivatives activity, and little sign of meaningful rotation into higher-beta crypto assets.
Gold: Gold sprinted to a fresh high above $5,000 as investors pile into the metal amid geopolitical tremors, ongoing central-bank buying, and a softer dollar, reinforcing its role as a durable hedge against global risk.
Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei slid as Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed amid rising geopolitical uncertainty, with a stronger yen weighing on Japanese stocks while other regional benchmarks moved in fits and starts.
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2026-01-26 05:27