Monero Collapse: The $150 Cliff No One Saw Coming

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In the quiet arithmetic of our days, when numbers pretend to be judges of fate, the price of Monero has fallen as if pursued by some inexorable winter. It slides about 2% in the last breath of 24 hours and retreats nearly 31% in the waning moon of a single month. From a lofty pinnacle near $799 in the middle of January, it has descended more than 65%, like a sun that refuses to rise in a land grown tired of sunshine. A momentary rebound to $276 promised steadiness, only to be coaxed back toward the dusty road of $330. At first glance, one might have believed the storm had spent its fury and the dust had settled.

Yet a more attentive eye, trained by years of watching markets resemble human folly, discerns another truth beneath the surface, as stubborn as old peas and as inexorable as fate.

Bear Flag and Moving Averages Show the Downtrend Is Still Intact

On the daily ledger, Monero moves within a bear flag, a sober banner that flaps in the cold wind of price action. The flag forms when a price falls with sudden gravity and then lingers, trading in a narrow corridor as if peering into a future it dares not imagine. The pole of this flag is the fall from $799 to $276; the fabric is the present consolidation, a quiet near-($330) region that pleases the eye only to deceive the heart. So long as the price remains within this slender seam, the old bearish sermon remains the more plausible sermon; a breach below the lower boundary would, with the gravity of a winter evening, likely summon another heavy leg lower.

Crossing signs from the wandering sages of trend only reaffirm this view. Exponential moving averages, those weighted echoes of the market’s recent memory, offer the whispered verdict of momentum: when the shorter-term lines slip beneath the longer-term ones, the mood turns sour. Presently, the 50-day EMA is drawing toward the 100-day EMA, and the 20-day EMA glides toward the 200-day EMA, like travelers who glimpse a horizon but never quite reach it.

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These developing bearish crossovers hint that the short-term breath of momentum is growing weaker in the presence of the broader bearish script. If these crosses align with the price flirting with the lower edge of the flag, the old theory of a breakdown would find fresh air to breathe.

Spot Flows Show Rebounds Are Being Used to Exit, Not Accumulate?

Exchange flow data reads like a diary of human behavior under the pressure of fortune. In the early days of February, Monero briefly wore the cloak of outflows, as if crying out, “Take care of your coins, friends, for trouble is near.” During the week ending February 2, net outflows touched about $7.1 million, suggesting that some adventurous souls were tardily stepping in after the crash-an act as perilous as stepping into a river after a storm.

But the mood did not endure. By the week ending February 9, flows turned to net inflows of roughly $768,000, with more XMR slipping back onto exchanges than leaving them. This pivot occurred as the price dipped to $276 and then somewhat recovered to the $327 zone. The pattern speaks a sober truth: the rebound drew out sellers more often than it invited new buyers.

This is the language of markets when they feel the cold hand of distribution: as soon as a bounce appears, selling tends to resume. Rather than clinging to the dream of a future recovery, many participants seem to employ the rebound to trim risk. A loss is converted into an exit; an exit, in its turn, becomes a ticket for liquidity rather than a vow of renewal.

When outward flows turn inward during consolidation, one hears the familiar refrain of distribution. Supply re-enters the arena. Without sturdy, steady demand in the spot market, rallies stumble upon the rocks of reality. The recent ascents are shallow not because the heavens forbid a rise, but because buyers lack the strength to absorb returning supply.

With spot demand waning, the burden shifts toward those who trade on the margins of time-the derivatives traders. Yet the data there too murmur caution.

Falling Open Interest and Weak Funding Limit the XMR Recovery Potential

Derivatives markets, those arenas where bravado and fear duel with every tick, offer a window into the spirit of traders and the gravity of leverage. Open interest marks the total value of active futures contracts. When it rises, one may think the crowd grows bolder; when it falls, one suspects the crowd is thinning, choosing prudence over gambles.

In mid-January, Monero’s open interest stood near $279 million. By February 10, it had dwindled to around $110 million-a drop of more than 60%. Such a retreat whispers that leverage is leaving the marketplace, that traders would rather fold their tents than risk another winter of deepening losses.

And yet funding rates linger in mild positivity. They reflect the cost of holding futures positions: when positive, longs claim the air; when negative, shorts press their advantage. In the current tale, funding remains slightly positive, suggesting a population of hopefuls rather than a crowd of fanatics. But without rising open interest, this optimism lacks the march of conviction that would make a short squeeze possible.

This pairing is a fragile craft. Fewer participants, less blood in the veins of the market, and yet a sentiment that hovers between cautious optimism and the memory of losses. It is a state that makes a swift ascent unlikely and a sustained rally almost suspicious.

Why $150 Is Becoming Key Target for the Monero Price

With the chessboard of technical, spot, and derivatives signals aligned in their own grave manner, the next phase of descent-if descent there must be-grows more predictable. The first line of defense sits near $314, a convergence of recent lows and the bear flag’s lower boundary. A decisive breach of that line would herald a continuation to the abyss with a brisk step.

If $314 fails, the pathway downward opens with alarming clarity. The next major demand zone lies closer to $150, a level that Fibonacci whispers as a probable resting place in the wake of a 50% retracement and a drop that would echo the magnitude of the first fall.

Below $150, whispers of $114 and $88 exist, cold and distant, yet $150 stands out as the first psychological anchor where long-term buyers might venture again-such is the stubborn law of sentiment. It has become the principal reference point for the bears, a line drawn in the snow that temptation dares not erase.

For the moment, Monero is trapped between the feeble stirrings of demand and the stubborn persistence of supply. The bear flag favors consolidation over revival. Spot flows teach a language of selling rather than accumulation. Open interest tells a tale of retreat rather than confidence. Funding offers a note of optimism without a chorus to sing it aloud.

To unravel or invalidate the bearish script, the price must close above $350 and $532, on successive daily candles, as if each closing bell were a door opening toward a brighter morning.

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2026-02-10 11:46