As an analyst, I’m tracking a very serious situation in the Strait of Hormuz. It’s been closed to traffic for over two weeks now, and we’ve seen oil prices jump more than 40% since before the conflict, currently trading around $103 a barrel. The US has already responded with airstrikes on Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil terminal, and has warned of further attacks on Iranian oil infrastructure if the Strait remains closed.
As an analyst, I’m keeping a close eye on a new chart from the Financial Times. It highlights a key question the crypto market still hasn’t been able to resolve.
The $175 Scenario
According to Coin Bureau, closing the Strait of Hormuz could cause a massive spike in oil prices – the largest in over 45 years. They estimate oil could jump around 150% to $175 per barrel, similar to the oil crisis during the 1979 Iranian Revolution.
A Financial Times chart tracks oil prices during major global events going back to 1972. The biggest price jump since then – aside from the high demand in 2008 – was caused by the Iranian Revolution in 1979. We’re now seeing the beginnings of what could be the eighth major event to impact oil prices since that time.
As a researcher following the situation, I’ve observed that Iran’s likely next Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has stated they will continue to close the Strait of Hormuz as a way to exert pressure. Interestingly, the European Union has dismissed former President Trump’s suggestion of forming a military alliance to reopen the waterway.
What Oil Does to Bitcoin
The connection between oil prices and Bitcoin isn’t always clear, but recent events show a pattern. When oil prices jumped above $100 on March 12th, Bitcoin’s value immediately dropped by 2%. Similarly, when the conflict started on February 28th, Bitcoin quickly fell to $63,000. Here’s how it works: rising oil prices contribute to concerns about inflation, which then influences the Federal Reserve’s policies. When the Fed tightens monetary policy to control inflation, it typically reduces investors’ willingness to take risks, impacting assets like Bitcoin.
But the full picture is more interesting.
Bitcoin Has Held Up – But Will It Last?
So far this year, the S&P 500 has decreased by 2.36%, but Bitcoin has risen about 12% since its lowest point during recent conflicts. Bloomberg described Bitcoin as a surprisingly stable asset during this time.
Bitcoin and gold are currently moving in opposite directions with a very strong correlation – the strongest divergence since November 2022. Recent investment has pushed Bitcoin’s price up to $74,000, while gold has seen a small decrease in value.
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) March 18, 2026
Following strikes in Iran on February 28th by the US and Israel, Iranians immediately began moving their money. Nobitex, the country’s biggest cryptocurrency exchange with 11 million users, experienced a nearly 900% surge in withdrawals within hours. This demonstrated the real-world effectiveness of cryptocurrency as a way to bypass censorship and move money across borders.
The Dollar Question
Iran is permitting some oil sales to China, India, and Turkey. There are reports it may also ask these countries to pay in Chinese yuan instead of US dollars. If a significant amount of oil starts being traded in yuan, it would increase the argument for using currencies other than the US dollar for global trade.
With oil prices around $103 a barrel, Bitcoin is currently trading near $72,000 to $73,000. However, a potential market reaction at $175 remains an unpredictable factor.
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FAQs
How do oil prices impact Bitcoin?
When oil prices go up, it can increase expectations of inflation. This often leads the Federal Reserve to tighten its policies, which usually makes investors less willing to take risks, potentially causing Bitcoin’s price to fall in the short term.
Could oil prices hit $175 a barrel?
Analysts believe that if the Strait remains closed for a long time, oil prices could jump by around 150%, similar to the oil crisis in 1979, potentially pushing prices to $175 per barrel.
What if oil was traded in yuan instead of dollars?
If major oil deals started being made in Chinese yuan instead of dollars, it could reduce the dollar’s role as the world’s main currency. This change could make assets like Bitcoin, which aren’t based on the dollar, more attractive as a way to store value.
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2026-03-18 16:41