Solana’s Price Pratchettes: A Bounce Back to 100?

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Solana has spent recent sessions under heavy pressure, sliding to levels not seen in nearly two years. The sharp decline followed broader market weakness, dragging SOL well below prior support zones. In other words, Solana tripped over a price rug and kept going for a crowd-pleasing pratfall.

Despite the drawdown, early signs of stabilisation persist like a stubborn witch refusing to leave the kettle. Historical patterns suggest Solana is polishing its armour for a comeback that could hobble back toward, and perhaps beyond, the fabled $100 mark.

Solana Has Seen Similar Conditions Before

On-chain valuation metrics indicate Solana is deeply undervalued. The Market Value to Realized Value ratio has fallen to a near two-and-a-half-year low. This reading shows the market value of SOL is significantly below the aggregate cost basis of circulating tokens, reflecting widespread unrealized losses among holders.

These conditions have historically marked late-stage corrections rather than early sell-offs. When realized value exceeds market value by this margin, selling pressure often diminishes. Investors become less inclined to exit at a loss, setting the stage for stabilization. This valuation imbalance makes SOL look suspiciously like a bargain in a wizard’s shop.

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Profitability data lends a hand to this tale. Only 21.9% of Solana addresses sit in the black, leaving a cool 78.1% underwater. That kind of distress has historically kept company with market bottoms, as discount prices tempt the sort of investors who enjoy a good bargain nearly as much as a good punchline.

In prior cycles, profitability dipping near or below 20% has tended to precede notable recoveries. With fewer profit-takers, supply thins; with prices kept low, collectors of value start stocking up like dwarves counting their coins. If history has a sense of humor this time, Solana could profit from renewed attention as investors brace for a rebound from these steeply discounted shelves.

SOL Price Bounce Back Requires Breaching This Level

As of writing, Solana hovers around $86, perched above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement-the portfolio equivalent of a sturdy tree in a windstorm. This level is often nicknamed Bear Market Support by people who sound like they know what they’re doing. So long as SOL stays above it, the slide is less likely to pick up speed for a dramatic finale, and a bounce becomes more plausible.

Current stabilization hints that SOL may be layering on the bottom like a ham sandwich on a lazy Sunday. Any recovery will rely on capital flows getting their act together. The Chaikin Money Flow shows an uptick, still negative but less dramatic-proof that the money’s tantrum is winding down and selling pressure is, if not asleep, at least yarning for a nap.

Clear skies above $90 would steer Solana onto a recovery road toward the enchanted $100. The verdict would arrive if price can turn the 61.8% Fibonacci vicinity near $105 into a solid floor. If inflows refuse to show up, progress could be undone in short order. A slip below $81 would expose SOL to further declines toward $75, or perhaps even a retreat to $70, which is far too chilly for a market that pretends to be a grown-up.

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2026-02-10 18:16