Why is Kalshi Still Fighting? Gemini’s Legal Win Explained!

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Prediction markets platform Kalshi has secured a crucial pause in its legal fight with state regulators. 🤯

A federal judge in Connecticut has granted the company a pause on enforcement actions from state authorities, effectively halting the regulator’s attempt to shut down its operations within the state. 🛑

Kalshi vs Connecticut

This ruling gives the federally regulated exchange a much-needed window of protection as the case moves forward. 🕰️

It also sets the stage for a critical early 2026 court battle that could define the legal status of prediction markets across the United States. 🏛️

That said, the temporary pause was directly issued by U.S. District Judge Vernon Oliver in an order released on the 8th of December. 📅

He directed the Connecticut Department of Consumer Protection (DCP) to halt all enforcement actions against Kalshi while the court reviews the company’s request for preliminary relief. 🚫

This decisive move came immediately after the DCP escalated its opposition by issuing cease-and-desist notices on the 2nd of December to Kalshi. 📢

The agency also targeted Robinhood and Crypto.com, alleging they were offering unlicensed sports-related wagering. 🏀

How did Kalshi respond to this sudden attack?

Needless to say, Kalshi swiftly responded by filing a lawsuit the very next day. ⚖️

It argued that its platform, which allows users to trade on future events, is a market for regulated derivatives-not illegal gambling. 📈

The company says its 2020 Designated Contract Market (DCM) status, granted by the CFTC, places it firmly under federal oversight. 🧠

It also claims this makes state gambling laws irrelevant and asserts that Connecticut is overstepping its jurisdiction. 🚩

Kalshi said,

“Connecticut’s attempt to regulate Kalshi intrudes upon the federal regulatory framework that Congress established for regulating derivatives on designated exchanges.” 📜

That said, Connecticut regulators are expected to respond to Kalshi’s core complaint by 9th January 2026, with oral arguments expected to follow in mid-February. 🗓️

Gemini gains CFTC approval

However, the prediction market landscape simultaneously witnessed a major shift. 🌟

The Winklevoss twins’ Gemini Space Station received a key nod from the US CFTC to launch its own betting platform, “Gemini Titan.” 🚀

The approval, culminating a five-year process since the exchange first applied in 2020, grants Gemini Titan a DCM license. 🎯

With this, Gemini can now offer “simple yes or no questions” event contracts to U.S. customers. 🎯

It also plans to expand into crypto futures, options, and perpetual contracts, solidifying DCM’s status as the gold standard for operating a legal prediction market in the U.S. 💰

Gemini President Cameron Winklevoss was quick to praise CFTC Chair Caroline D. Pham when he said,

“Unlike her predecessor, Acting Chairman Pham has positioned the CFTC as a pro-business, pro-innovation regulator that will allow America to lead in these new and exciting markets.” 🙌

Kalshi and Gemini’s stock performance and more

This coincided with Kalshi seeing its pre-IPO stock soar to a reported $345.67, a surge of 1,238.25% in the past year, per Hiive. 📈

Meanwhile, Gemini’s GEMI closed at $11.36 after a sharp 69.31% drop, according to Yahoo Finance. 📉

This followed, Polymarket, powered by its massive $2 billion backing from ICE, doubling down on institutional integration, aiming to distribute its accurate event data to Wall Street. 🏦

Meanwhile, Kalshi is not standing still, using its CFTC-regulated status and rapid Web2 dominance to wage an escalating competitive war. 🧠

All this brings to a point that the fight for long-term supremacy in this newly legitimate asset class is far from settled. 🧨

Final thoughts

  • As more states issue enforcement actions, the question is no longer about Kalshi alone but whether a unified national framework can ever exist. 🤔
  • After a five-year grind, Gemini’s regulatory success shows that the CFTC is willing to bless new entrants-potentially reshaping who gets to lead the next era of event markets. 🚀

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2025-12-12 01:26